An economist has accused the Scottish government of misrepresenting last week’s export figures by failing to report a larger drop in trade.
It has also emerged that the figures contradict statistics released last year in the quarterly national accounts (NAS).
The government-published Export Statistics Scotland, which is based on its global connections survey (ESS GCS), reveals that the value of Scottish exports slumped 5% in 2016. The ESS report also showed exports to the rest of the UK fell 8.8%.
Economy secretary Keith Brown highlighted an increase in Scotland’s international exports (excluding oil and gas) which rose by £460m to £29.8bn, up 1.6%, driven by a jump in exports of financial services.
Brown said it was “encouraging to see that international exports continue to increase for Scottish businesses”.
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However, Tony Mackay, the Inverness economist who publishes the closely watched Scottish Economy monthly report, said Brown had “misrepresented the statistics”. He said: “The figures quoted are in nominal terms and exclude inflation. In real terms international exports didn’t increase, they fell 1.2%. That fact was hidden in the appendices.”
Mackay said the reported 5% fall in overall exports, including sales to the rest of the UK, was a decline of 7.5% in real terms. Inflation-adjusted data provides a more accurate picture of economic growth.
Mackay said: “It is extremely disappointing that these real-terms figures were not included in either the economy secretary’s statement or the Scottish government’s official press release. It is very misleading.”
Amid increasing questions about the veracity of Scotland’s economic statistics it has also emerged that the export figures are at odds with government statistics released in November in the NAS, which showed that Scottish exports had actually increased.
This data stated that total Scottish exports rose 3.1% in 2016. In contrast to the ESS figures, the NAS said Scottish exports to the rest of the UK were up 1.6%.
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John McLaren, author of the authoritative Scottish Trends economic bulletin, said: “It’s odd, to say the least, that the ESS GCS figures are different from those of NAS in terms of year-on-year changes. That means one of them is very wrong. Last week’s report did not offer much in terms of an explanation for the figures.”
Mackay has written to the Scottish government to ask why the inflation-adjusted figures were not included in the announcement, and how the data has produced such widely different results.
The government said: “Last week’s National Statistics publication clearly shows that Scotland’s international exports (excluding oil and gas) increased. The additional information provided are experimental statistics which have been published to involve stakeholders in their development, and statisticians advise the use of the information in the main publication.”
However, Mackay said: “There are different ways of measuring inflation but whatever measure you use there was a fall in the value of exports in real terms.
“I understand why the cabinet secretary wants to present the best possible picture but there is no doubt that in real terms there was a fall in the value of our international exports in 2016, for the first time since 2008.”