A dismal spectre haunts the SNP as the next Westminster election draws closer. The party is slowly sinking into an electoral quagmire and is struggling to escape.
At first glance today’s poll represents better news for Humza Yousaf’s party. In Norstat’s poll in January it was three points behind Labour but today it is neck and neck.
Nevertheless at 32 per cent the party’s share is down a point on January. It is at the lowest level recorded by Panelbase/Norstat since the independence referendum in 2014. At the same time, the party’s share of the Holyrood vote has slipped back to the record low registered in October (35 per cent), while on the regional vote it stands below 30 per cent for the first time.
What might the party do to try to turn around this persistent slippage in support?
As Yousaf acknowledged last week, the SNP needs to regain those votes lost to other nationalist parties. No less than 6 per cent are saying they would vote for the Greens or Alba. Most of those voted for the SNP in 2019 and nearly four in five support independence.
Advertisement
The SNP’s prospects for Westminster would be transformed if these voters backed the SNP instead. Even with Labour still on 32 per cent, the SNP could win nearly twice as many seats (31) as Labour (16).
But it is Labour, not the Greens or Alba, that is inflicting most damage on the SNP. One in six of those who voted SNP in 2019 are backing Labour. Indeed nearly one in five (19 per cent) of those who say they would vote Yes in a second independence referendum are inclined to tick the Labour box.
A starting point for Yousaf would be to grab the votes of those who, while inclined to back Labour for Westminster, say they would still vote SNP for Holyrood. About one in four Labour-backing Yes supporters fall into that category.
Central to the SNP’s hopes will be winning the battle over what the Westminster election is about. Anas Sarwar says vote Labour to ensure the Tories are booted out of power at Westminster. Yousaf needs to persuade voters that such an outcome will not advance independence.
However, the key question is whether Yousaf can reach this low-hanging fruit. The trouble is that he is increasingly unpopular. Even among those who voted SNP in 2019, more say Yousaf is doing a bad job as first minister (36 per cent) than doing a good one (29 per cent). That is a sharp reversal on January when 40 per cent felt he was doing a good job and only 26 per cent a bad one.
Advertisement
Does the SNP have an option other than to make the best of Yousaf’s leadership?
Sir John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University, and senior research fellow at the Scottish Centre for Social Research
