Ariel Sharon looked nervously for support to the man sitting to his left on the podium. Facing a hostile reception from his own central committee, he badly needed the backing of his finance minister to bring the Labour opposition into his government, paving the way for an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Benjamin Netanyahu sat in stony silence, however. Moments later the votes were counted and Sharon’s plans lay in tatters. Witnesses claim to have detected a tiny smile lighting up the face of the hawkish finance minister.
Last week’s defeat for Sharon, 76, was the third inflicted by his own party in two years. Once known as the Bulldozer, he increasingly looks like a lame duck instead.
Sharon remains determined to build a coalition willing to push through his controversial policy under which 8,000 Jewish settlers would be removed from Gaza and their 21 fortified enclaves closed. Four of the 120 West Bank settlements would also be shut down.
However, after last week’s events the plan looks so politically suicidal that Sharon is widely tipped to be ousted — most probably by Netanyahu, 54 — before he has a chance even to begin to implement it.
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Netanyahu’s elevation to prime minister — a post he last held five years ago — would almost certainly spell the end for the Gaza pull-out, further reducing the chances of any reconciliation between Israel and the Palestinians. Picking up the pieces will be one of the first foreign policy tasks of George W Bush or John Kerry after the American presidential elections in November.
While Sharon retired to lick his wounds at his ranch in the Negev desert, Netanyahu was this weekend at his villa overlooking the Mediterranean in Caesarea, north of Tel Aviv, pondering the best way of dealing a coup de grace to his old rival. It was here, so the Bible tells us, that Herod, the Roman ruler, mapped out his slaughter of the innocents 2,000 years ago, and Sharon is becoming a similarly easy target.
After his 1999 defeat by Ehud Barak, the then Labour leader, Netanyahu concentrated on his business and public speaking activities in America. Since returning two years ago wiser and considerably richer, and joining Sharon’s government, “Bibi” has been working hard behind the scenes to undermine his party boss.
He is implacably opposed to the principle of a Palestinian state and will not countenance any withdrawal by the Israelis from either Gaza or the West Bank. At the moment he leads all the Likud opinion polls.
Netanyahu’s co-conspirator against Sharon is Silvan Shalom, the foreign minister, who helped him to orchestrate last week’s “no” vote. For Shalom, the admission of Shimon Peres, the Labour leader, to the government would have constituted a very personal threat: Peres probably would have taken his job.
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Shalom is married to Judy Mozes, daughter of one of the richest and most influential families in Israel. It owns the country’s bestselling tabloid newspaper and has substantial holdings in television and radio.
Judy Shalom’s cocktail parties are famous gathering points for the elite and she was recently overheard to give Sharon little chance of survival. “He’s old. He should go and take care of the sheep on his farm,” was her caustic verdict.
Sharon had thought that he could perform a delicate balancing act and buy Netanyahu off with support for his budget plans, which he helped to guide through cabinet the previous week. When the favour was not returned at the Likud convention, Sharon got the message.
Unlikely to be able to form a coalition with Peres, Sharon will now almost certainly be forced to call an election. At the ensuing Likud primary, possibly as early as October, he will stand little chance of defeating the Netanyahu camp. Analysts predict that elections will follow in the new year.
Perhaps the best indication of Sharon’s deteriorating position came from an angry Likud member at the convention. Standing up, he shouted: “Down with Saddam! Saddam go home!” His astonished friends reminded him that Saddam Hussein was in jail in Iraq. “No,” he replied. “Saddam is on the podium.”
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Again, Netanyahu showed a wry smile.