THE temptation may be, after England's 4-1 win in Zagreb last September, to believe Croatia are as much a declining force as England are a rising one. Nothing could be more wrong, at least if Slaven Bilic is to be believed, and the Croatia manager is as forthright as any in the game.
He even argues - convincingly - that the famously passionate Maksimir crowd, which was widely believed responsible for the unbeaten home record England shattered, had become a double-edged sword. "Sometimes when we play at home we approach the game like it lasts for 15 minutes," he said. "So if we don't score early, or the opponent keeps the ball for a minute, or has a corner kick or a chance, then we panic in defence. It doesn't happen when we play away. We are much calmer, we wait and then we play well."
England frustrated Croatia in precisely that way, pressing them in possession, denying them the ball for long periods before taking a 26th-minute lead. Bilic's underlying message is clear: Fabio Capello's team know that victory at Wembley on Wednesday will confirm their place in the finals but they will not have it easy.
There is a theory that Bilic himself has missed the boat by staying on after Euro 2008. Then, having knocked out England, he was regarded as one of the most promising managerial prospects in Europe and was linked with many Premier League vacancies. Not that Bilic would ever consider his role in such a way. For him, managing Croatia for a salary estimated at about £200,000 a year is a patriotic duty. His father, a university lecturer, was a leading dissident in Tito's Yugoslavia, and Bilic still walks with a limp because he insisted on playing on through the 1998 World Cup with a stress fracture of the hip.
That 4-1 defeat has, inevitably, affected the English perception of him, but Bilic insists Croatia are stronger now. "Definitely we are," he said, "because we have practised more - at the Euros we had had maybe 100 trainings together, now we have 200 and that means a lot for development. That does not have to produce a better result, as it also depends on the opponent, a little luck, the other circumstances, but we are better as a team."
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The loss of Luka Modric - "our leader", as Bilic terms him - to a fractured tibia, diminishes them, but they have dealt with major absentees before, notably when Eduardo broke his leg. "It was a blow," Bilic said, "but we matured without him." That gave winger Ivan Rakitic, 21, a chance, and in Modric's absence, Niko Kranjcar can move into the middle.
Croatia have also had to adapt to life without the retired Niko Kovac. He had a key role, providing the defensive platform that let Bilic field three attacking midfielders and two forwards, while also having the creative intelligence to initiate attacks. Replacing him was always going to be tough, and it was a weakness in that area that led to them surrendering the midfield in the 2-2 draw against Ukraine in June, which may be critical as it gives Ukraine a better head-to-head record against Croatia.
Ognjen Vukojevic of Dynamo Kiev was given the anchor role away to Belarus last month and, while he is no Kovac yet, the 25-year-old was central to a far more cohesive performance. Bilic hailed the second-half display in a 3-1 win as the best under his leadership, and he expects more to come. "We are at a stage where most of the players are growing up and should be even better," he said. "As a coach, I am more experienced than I was six years ago when I started."
After a slight dip following the Euros, he clearly believes Croatia are coming again.
* In the end, Croatia did enough, beating Belarus 1-0 in Zagreb, but it was hardly the confidence-builder they must have been hoping for before Wednesday's match against England. On their last visit, two years ago, Croatia had already qualified for Euro 2008 and it was England who needed a result; this time it is Croatia who are under pressure, and it showed. Ukraine's 5-0 win over Andorra earlier in the afternoon had pulled them level with Croatia before kick-off, and with goal difference potentially decisive in the battle for second in Group Six and a playoff spot, they had to beat Belarus. Anxiety was beginning to sprout when Croatia took a fortuitous lead midway through the first half through Ivan Rakitic, left. The deflected strike proved enough but Croatia will be without Spurs full-back Vedran Corluka on Wednesday. He collected a second yellow card for time-wasting and was sent off, meaning he will miss Wembley through suspension.