MARTIN JOHNSON is no gambler. Sticking has it over twisting every time. The latest squad announcement amplifies the point until the eardrums almost burst. The option of experienced but injured men such as Harry Ellis and Julian White against fellow Tigers of untrammelled potential such as Ben Youngs and Dan Cole should not even be a matter of debate; nor is it for Johnson. He just gets it the wrong way around and picks the fading players not proving it week in and week out, confounding Rob Andrew's wafer-thin justifications for leaving youth alone as the blinkers stay fitted.
It is therefore no great surprise that the most talked about of the few bolters into the squad is Shontayne Hape. It is a classic Johnson pick. One suspects a cussed sense of vicarious pleasure in annoying his critics and opting for the New Zealander, whose reviews since inclusion have been as far from rave as is possible.
Little Englanders who like their white jerseys to be filled by yeomen Englishmen of the soil (remember how long it took Mike Catt to win the Twickenham crowd's affection) are livid and many a decent judge cannot see why the 28-year-old former Bradford Bull (another reason to irritate many) has bypassed Dominic Waldouck. Each to their own on the thorny issue of nationalism but the pragmatic Johnson was never going to take the high ground if a player who could benefit him became available. Quite right, too; should Hape make the grade and convert the rust of English back play into something shimmering, his Maori ancestry will be waved under the West Stand.
The more serious issue is whether he is good enough. There are doubts over his selection based simply upon his club form, but selection is not simply about the here and now but the ability to see something as yet unearthed and tap it. This ability is not one of the more obvious qualities of England's recruitment policy but Hape is the type of player on whom Brian Smith could convince Johnson to gamble.
In England's world, defence predominates and Hape is a rugged defender. Neither Shane Geraghty, whose absence is an indictment of England's autumn rather than his own ability, nor Waldouck has anything like the physical presence of the Maori and Hape lets opponents feel his power. He is aggressive, enthusiastic and organised in defence and that, in England's world, is a fine foundation.
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His game lacks dazzle, which explains the disgruntlement at his inclusion. But he possesses one party trick and it is one of the best in English rugby. He has a decisive stamp of a sidestep off both right and left feet. Time after time he has left defenders spreadeagled as he jags infield, attacking the weak shoulder. But - and here is the downside to this undoubted asset - he only has an inside step. There seems neither the pace nor the inclination to beat a man on the outside. It limits attacking options but analysis of England's style hints that his predictable step suits the team more than, say, the variety of Geraghty.
If Hape plays, he gives England a centre capable of straightening the line. If Jonny Wilkinson cannot stop himself from reverting to type under international pressure and dropping deep, somebody must run into and not through the traffic. Geraghty and Waldouck thrive when they are given ball on the gain line, in the thick of the defensive mayhem, but Wilkinson is usually five metres too deep for their requirements.
While Wilkinson is No 10, Johnson's team needs a bulkier presence to carry the gain line. Hape does that and - if he checks inside the defensive shoulder - has a superbly soft-handed offload that will free up a winger. I could see Chris Ashton revelling close to Hape if England opted for a combination of Riki Flutey, Hape and the young Saint. The thought of a pair of Kiwis and two league men will have a few groaning but if it restores life to the moribund England attack, so what?
This ability to stand and offload behind the opposing defender is what intrigues Smith. Whether Hape has exuded international class to date is not the central issue. Jason Robinson was not up to Test-match rugby when he was capped from the bench for England, but Clive Woodward saw the potential and threw him in. Selected officially as a 12, it would not be a great surprise if Hape and Flutey ended up combining in midfield. Some of the squad selections border on the mad, but Hape's inclusion shows definite proof of method.