The good news is that, finally, we have a government. The bad news is that we are not sure what kind of government we are getting. And the early omens are not particularly favourable.
Perhaps it was inevitable given the seat numbers and the range of personalities involved that it was not going to be straightforward. Nevertheless, the fact that Enda Kenny’s election as taoiseach hung in the balance for a couple of hours yesterday because of a dispute over turf cutting does not inspire confidence.
The independents consistently emphasised that their focus was on national issues and the macro picture. Without trying to sound glib, it is hard to see where turf cutting fits into that equation. It seems that in Ireland all politics really is local.
The programme for government is a pretty underwhelming document with a “one for everyone in the audience” feel about it. There are some fine aspirations — in areas such as housing, homelessness, health and education — but not a huge amount by way of meat in the sandwich.
It also has a distinctly populist feel about it that raises genuine concerns about replicating some of the mistakes of the past. The notion, for example, that no rural school can close against the wishes of parents is a shocking abdication of responsibility by the incoming government. Government decisions should be made on the basis of the common good, not unanimous approval.
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Talk of a help to buy scheme for young couples should also raise alarm bells. It sounds seductive but we know from bitter experience that such schemes serve only to feed house price inflation and benefit nobody except builders. Have we learned nothing from the housing bubble?
The same concerns hold about the proposed 15 per cent increase in rent supplement, which simple economic logic suggests will only serve to drive rents higher. The pilot scheme to reopen six rural garda stations, meanwhile, smacks of political expediency and marks yet another row back on a difficult decision.
More worryingly, the commitments on tax, that will involve a further narrowing of the tax base, and the proposed public service pay commission have the potential to cause serious problems for public finances down the line.
And, of course, there are measures to develop services at particular hospitals, which happen to be based in the constituencies of key government-supporting independents. Perhaps those services are indeed required but they should be introduced on their own merits, not as part of government formation negotiations.
In theory, the make-up of the Dail certainly offers the prospect of a new way of doing business. The government will have to work with the chamber and accept the input of opposition TDs into legislation. There will also be a greater role in budgets and legislation generally for Oireachtas committees, which up to now have been routinely ignored despite some impressive work.
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The real worry is that, in practice, this will result is a hamstrung administration — one unable to take even moderately difficult decisions because it fears losing the support of independents or being vetoed by the opposition.
What will happen, for example, if the commission looking into water charges finds definitively when it comes to report that such charges are required in the national interest to safeguard our water supply? It is hard to be optimistic that the Dail will “constructively” do the “right thing” in that event. Electoral considerations will almost certainly override everything.
And that would be a serious problem because the last thing the state needs is a government simply treading water or worse, engaging in blatant populism under the guise of “fairness”.
It will require enormous strength of character from the new cabinet to avoid such pitfalls. They will need to be bold, rather than cautious and overly calculating.
And it will require total buy-in from the government-supporting independents. They cannot have it both ways by being in government, but at the same time distancing themselves from government policy. If that happens, the country will be the loser and, given the fragility of the global economy, we cannot afford for that to happen.
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The sobering reality is there is little prospect of future Daileanna being much less fragmented than the current Dail. So we better hope that politicians on all sides of the house start embracing new politics sooner rather than later.