IF I was an Irish player, I would have been champing at the bit to touch down in Auckland this weekend. What better opportunity could you have in rugby than to take down the All Blacks in their first home game since being crowned world champions?
One of my best memories as a player was winning a Test series for the first time in South Africa. That was in 1996, the year after we had lost the World Cup final there to the Springboks. Remember too that Ireland pulled off a similar trick eight years later — beating England in the first international at Twickenham after Martin Johnson’s men had lifted the Webb Ellis trophy five months earlier.
Beating New Zealand on Saturday would be an even bigger statement and Ireland will never get close to pulling that off if they do not have belief. I will be particularly interested to see how Jonathan Sexton gets on. In the Six Nations, Ireland struggled to take the zip and elan of Leinster into a Test match. When Sexton ran the show in the Heineken Cup, his confidence and enterprise seemed to infect those around him. The good thing is that he is young and shouldn’t be weighed down by a history of losing in the southern hemisphere. The audacity of Christian Cullen, Andrew Mehrtens and Jeff Wilson was crucial to our win over the Springboks in 1996. These were guys who had no real idea of the All Blacks’ struggles to win in South Africa.
It goes without saying that Brian O’Driscoll is another key man. He might have lost every Test he’s played against New Zealand but nobody thinks the Ireland captain lacks self-belief. If he plays well the rest of the team will grow in confidence. He looks sharp and, with this probably the last time he will play in New Zealand, I expect him to take the attack to the hosts.
The bad news for the Irish is that most of our teams in the Super 15, with the exception of the Blues, have been going well. Jerome Kaino might not be available for selection in the back row, having moved to Japan, but Adam Thomson has been in great form and will surely come in. Alongside him will be Richie McCaw who missed the early rounds of Super 15 but will have had four or five games under his belt by the time of the first Test. Jamie Heaslip and Sean O’Brien are good players but without Stephen Ferris to support them it’s advantage New Zealand in the back row.
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I’m not sure it gets any better for Ireland in the scrum. Leinster fans can appreciate how much we will miss Brad Thorn in the second row. But watch out for young Chiefs lock Brodie Retallick. He’s a giant of a man with real potential. He might not start any of the Tests but he could yet make an impact. His Chiefs teammate, prop Ben Tameifuna, is another to watch. With Paul O’Connell ruled out of the series, Ireland will desperately need Mike Ross and Cian Healy to be fully fit because their front five will be seriously underpowered otherwise.
Behind the pack, Andy Ellis will probably start at No 9. Piri Weepu, who had such a good World Cup, has not been firing this season but being in the All Black environment should bring out the best in him. So it would not be a surprise if he were to make the team for the second Test. Out wide, the new star could be wing Julian Savea. He is a superb athlete who has been in scintillating form with the Highlanders and was the IRB’s 2010 world junior player of the year.
Dan Carter is back after his World Cup injury disappointment and his class speaks for itself. I am pleased, however, that he’s got Aaron Cruden breathing down his neck. There has even been talk of moving Carter to inside centre, where he started his international career, to accommodate Carter at No 10. That would be fascinating to watch. With a new coach, Steve Hansen, in place and this being the first international of our season, there is always the risk that Ireland could catch the All Blacks cold. Yet I expect New Zealand to go back to basics in their approach, certainly for the series opener. With O’Connell and Ferris missing for Ireland, that will probably be enough.