Can Finn Russell find a way through the press?
Scotland’s fly half has been the dominant figure in this fixture in recent years, whether by producing perhaps the finest long pass the game has ever seen (2018), almost single-handedly turning round a sinking ship to draw at Twickenham the following year, or in the myriad moments of excellence which have underpinned three straight wins since 2021. It is not entirely coincidental that the only time Scotland have lost in this period — the grim, weather-beaten 13-6 of 2020 — Russell was not involved, having fallen out with Gregor Townsend.
When he’s been in the team, England have tried all kinds of strategies to keep him quiet, but have never managed to do so for the full game. One side who did succeed in this were South Africa at last year’s World Cup, when their blitz defence was influenced by Felix Jones, who is now on Steve Borthwick’s staff. The Springboks flooded Russell’s passing lane and knocked him off his stride both literally and figuratively. As he later conceded, “I was probably over-focused. Did I overthink things against South Africa? Potentially. I thought a lot about their blitz defence and what was going to come. I was almost looking more at their defence than what we could do in attack.”
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Under Jones, the England blitz is already taking shape, but Russell will surely be tempted to use his boot and attempt to go over, under and through the press rather than always around it, as was the case down in Marseille against the Boks.
Will Scotland’s centres be more central?
So much of what was good about Scotland in 2023 came down to Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones. Their individual output and the seemingly innate manner in which they combined. While Tuipulotu was exceptional in that first half against Wales, and has some of the best gainline stats in this year’s tournament, there have been precious few sightings of Jones on those glorious outside arcs. The Calcutta Cup fixture has often brought the best out in him, however, and there was a sharp reminder of his talent with that lovely little touch to help send Ben White over against France.
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With the England midfield beefed up by the return of Ollie Lawrence (Russell’s Bath team-mate), Tuipulotu will be an even more important cog for Scotland in defence and needs to make sure that he is utterly precise with that little pop out the back which Scotland love to use but which will be vulnerable to the blitz. It was noticeable how much pressure South Africa applied to the ‘Huwipulotu’ axis in the second half of that World Cup clash.
Will England back up their vow to ‘kick the door down’?
It used to be a given that English packs would come north and deliver lessons in physicality. As Borthwick’s skills and kicking coach, Kevin Sinfield clearly believes that red rose boots can be metaphorically applied to thistle-clad backsides this time too, with the rugby league legend saying earlier this week that he expected the returning lock George Martin to “leave a mark on somebody”.
At Scotland’s own media session earlier that same day, the scrum coach Pieter de Villiers was making the case for his charges having progressed to a point where they can not only strive for parity, but look to dominate their opposite numbers in white. Something has to give, and if the Scots can point to some excellent physical work in the first halves of both the Wales and France games as well as recent Calcutta Cup clashes, they did struggle to combat the raw power of South Africa and Ireland at the World Cup.
Can Scotland stay on the right side of the officials?
The pertinent example here is not so much the late heartbreak against France, when Nic Berry, the on-field referee, and Brian MacNeice, the TMO, were essentially left with nowhere to go by the positioning of the TMO protocol. What Townsend will surely have been hammering home — particularly ahead of a contest where the breakdown has been so key in recent times — is what happened in Cardiff, when Scotland failed to adapt to the style of Ben O’Keeffe and ended up conceding a scarcely believable string of 14 consecutive penalties.
Against France, they were infinitely tighter, and made consistently better decisions about when and how to compete on the floor. To give away only four penalties in a contest like that was as impressive as the previous week had been boneheaded.
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In games that the referee Andrew Brace has refereed, Scotland have beaten England, Wales (twice) and Fiji. They know what he is like and what he likes. Here’s hoping that none of us is talking about him come the close.
Which side’s title hopes will still be alive at the finish?
England have been far from wholly convincing in their wins over Italy and Wales, but the bottom line is that they come to Edinburgh still nurturing hopes of a grand slam. If those ambitions remain intact when Brace blows for no side, it will tee things up beautifully for the Twickenham clash with Ireland in round 4.
Should Scotland pull through, however, they themselves will be sniffing the prospect of a title decider in Dublin on the closing weekend. Townsend’s men have a trip to Rome in between, but ought to have more than enough for Italy. Such is the nature of the Six Nations, we routinely call matches crucial, but this one does have a pivotal feel for the overall fate of both teams.
Scotland v England
Six Nations, Murrayfield
Saturday, 4.45pm
TV BBC One
