The first price shocks were felt in the richest markets — Edinburgh was significantly ahead of Glasgow, and Glasgow led the rest of central Scotland by several years. Spiralling prices in the cities forced many to consider living further afield and in the past couple of years there has been a clear ripple effect in towns and villages outside the large cities — hence the spectacular increases in hitherto rather unfancied towns such as those in the former Fife coalfield and in industrial Lanarkshire.
The ripple effect is evident to this day — see the substantial price rises that have occurred in Ayrshire in the past year — but it is almost spent.
The appearance of a ripple effect can, however, be deceiving. The news that house prices in a town have increased by 15% appears to be straightforward. It would be easy to extrapolate from such a figure that a house worth £100,000 last year will today sell for £115,000. In some cases this will be true, but not always.
All house price indices are based on sales in a particular area compared with sales in the same area in the previous year. A new development in a town can significantly affect the value of an average sale in a period without any of the properties in the rest of the town rising in value at all. Two dozen new, large executive homes built and sold for double the average price of property in a small town can give the appearance of a price surge, when nothing of the sort has taken place.
That is why this guide, based on the assessments of surveyors and agents of the market today, gives the best possible guide to what your home, or the house you want, is actually worth.
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Unlike historical sales data — which is necessarily six months out of date — we are also able to exclude anomalous sales that might unnaturally boost, or depress, average figures. More than 50 property experts have contributed their most up-to-date data to provide a clear snapshot of current values.
A significant factor that has emerged this year is the operation of a clear, two-tier market, with the very top of the Scottish housing ladder having become almost entirely detached from the rest of the market.
While house prices in most of Edinburgh have seen a healthy but unremarkable 8% rise, those fortunate enough to own a home in the most desirable streets have seen a very different story. Agents report intense competition for houses in Barnton, for example, with price records being smashed whenever a prime property has been marketed.
Palaces notwithstanding, even where the market is cooler than it was a year ago, average prices continue to nose upwards. Three factors make this likely to continue. The number of households in Scotland is increasing, as are general expectations of our homes. More families are splitting up and living apart than ever and, despite the Scottish executive’s efforts, there are still plenty of people buying second homes.
The country’s property is cheaper, on average, than that in the rest of the UK. As a result, an upward drift to catch up with England is likely to continue, as is the trickle of southern relocators attracted by how much their money will buy north of the border.
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Finally, the arrival of east Europeans and other migrants means there is a net inflow of people to the country. The 32,000 young Poles who arrived in Scotland last year might not be buying homes here just yet, but their need to live somewhere has given the rental market a fillip. Unless migration policies are changed fundamentally, that inflow will continue.
If you want to make a killing in the property market, you will need real nous. For everybody else, we can look forward to the luxury of a mature, secure market. It might not be as exciting as a boom, but it certainly beats a slump.