We know where and how Scotland can beat Wales. If the talent they have across the backline bring the same ambition, tempo and accuracy that put the wind up New Zealand and blew away Australia, they’ll make a winning start. It is, though, just as easy to imagine what Warren Gatland believes will swing the match in his men’s favour. For all the talk of Wales expanding their horizons, I’d be surprised if they turn up looking to play an open game. If they do, happy days, because it’ll play into Scotland’s hands, but Gatland knows how much of Test rugby is about putting the opposition in places they don’t want to be.
Against Scotland, that means prioritising power, cranking up the pressure on their set scrum and fringe defence. In the games where Scotland struggled last year, England and Fiji away, it was those areas that betrayed the greatest vulnerability, and the same goes for the Samoa match they eventually won.
Not for a long time have Wales been renowned for the collective strength of their tight five, but look at what their sides have been doing in Europe, where Ospreys drilled the Saracens scrum and the Scarlets front row have been on fire in all aspects of the job.
In the matches where physicality really counted — Clermont, Northampton, Bath, Saracens, Toulon — men like Rob Evans, Ken Owens, Samson Lee, Bradley Davies and Alun Wyn-Jones all excelled. Gatland will fancy a repeat against an injury-hit Scottish front five.
Is there a vulnerability? Yes. An out-and-out weakness? Not yet. If and when any more go down, specifically Stuart McInally or Jon Welsh, then there’s a serious problem, but I actually think the players available right now have it in them not to be bullied.
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The big reason I’m prepared to back them is the improvement in McInally and Grant Gilchrist. I played with both and have always known they were good, but I’m not convinced they ever properly believed it themselves up to now.
Gilchrist has probably never had anyone be black and white with him like Richard Cockerill. Never had a coach in his ear saying, ‘You’re very, very good. You’re a specimen. You’ve got that farmer strength. The breakdown and those carries are what you’re about. Don’t worry about anything else.’
He’s been so much better and so much more focused in the first half of the season. His work around the breakdown off the bench against New Zealand and from the start against Australia were outstanding, and with Richie Gray yet to properly train in Townsend’s system, Gilchrist would be my pick to partner Jonny Gray.
As you’d expect from a former back-row, McInally has always been strong in the loose and that ability to link up and carry is priceless with the way the hooker role has moved on. Very rarely do you see players transition from back row to front and become world class, but McInally is well into that journey.
Either side of him on Saturday, I’d go with Gordon Reid and Welsh. Are these guys at the cutting-edge of modern prop play? Not in a million years, but what they are is excellent scrummagers who can be relied upon in the lineout and in the maul because that’s what the Premiership demands. Jamie Bhatti has more rugby about him. He’s impressive in the loose, a fine carrier. But if you’ve not got set-piece parity, you’re not going to be able to carry because you’ll be coming up against brick walls. Set out with your strongest scrum, and have Bhatti, Richie Gray and Ryan Wilson to come on when things open up.
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I suspect the Glasgow captain will start if his ankle’s up to it. I’d understand the logic, because he’s a better lineout forward than David Denton and has a broader skill set. What Denton brings is go-forward, and watching him for Worcester, he’s back to the levels we all remember from the last World Cup.
With that low centre of gravity, Hamish Watson will get you over the gainline, but Six Nations defences will be a lot more closed than the ones Scotland met in the autumn. They could really do with someone who can punch their way through traffic. Bhatti and Zander Fagerson took up the slack last November, but Denton has since presented himself as an attractive solution alongside Cornell Du Preez.
Don’t worry about Scott Lawson. He’s one of the best set-piece forwards I played with and is still hitting those levels at 36. He has the ability, the leadership and the understanding to say in the middle of a storm, ‘Here is what we’re doing’. At the World Cup, Scotland wouldn’t have gone long with that fateful lineout if this old man had been throwing in.
For Townsend’s men, the opportunity is obvious. Wales have the more widespread injuries, and it was a psychological blow for Scotland to finally beat them at Murrayfield. Gatland was always someone I was in awe of as a player; he’d won numerous trophies, Grand Slams, and been successful with the Lions, but he’s lost a bit of that aura too. The Wales I played against was Wales in their prime — this side, as a collective, are unproven.
That’s not remotely the same as saying Scotland will win, but even with all the running repairs up front, I’m convinced they have the tools.
