George Burley urged caution after Scotland’s task in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup became clearer following Wednesday night’s group nine qualifying games.
Macedonia drew level with Scotland on seven points courtesy of a 2-0 home win over Iceland, though they have played a game more and are in third because of their inferior goal difference.
Burley then received a boost in the later kick-off in Rotterdam when Holland, who have already qualified as runaway group leaders, maintained their 100 per cent record with a 2-0 win over Norway, which left Egil Olsen’s men rooted to the bottom of the table with just three points from five games.
Scotland’s next match is away to Norway in August before they welcome Macedonia and Holland to Hampden Park in what will be a crucial double-header in September.
Ending the campaign as one of the best eight runners-up from the nine qualifying groups would ensure a play-off place and the chance for Scotland to reach their first tournament since the 1998 World Cup in France.
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However, Burley believes there is still a lot of work to be done before the Tartan Army can start preparing for a trip to South Africa.
“The group was always going to be tight,” he said. “We knew that before we started the campaign and the results in the last few days have shown that. The teams fighting for second spot can all take points off each other. But we know what we have to do now. Going to Norway in August was always going to be crucial. But with the Macedonia result [against Iceland] it means that we have to beat them when they come to Hampden in September.”
However, Scotland could still come in behind Holland in the group but lose out on qualification by being the worst second-placed team, under Fifa’s qualification system where only eight of the nine runners-up progress.
Because Scotland’s section, group nine, has only five teams rather than the six teams in the other groups, the rankings are worked out by excluding results against the sixth-placed teams.
Scotland are currently second bottom of the second-placed teams, with only Croatia below them. They are level with Northern Ireland, Ireland, Switzerland and Hungary.
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The bad news for Burley is that Croatia have still to play the likes of Belarus, twice, and Kazakhstan and will be expected to pick up points.
Scotland are now in serious danger of finishing bottom of the nine second-placed teams unless they collect two wins and a draw from their final three matches against Norway, Macedonia and Holland. Anything less will almost certainly condemn them to being the worst runner-up.
Play-off standings
The top eight second-placed teams go into the World Cup play-offs. Current standings:
Team Played Points
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1 Russia 5 12
2 France 5 10
3 Bosnia 5 9
4 Hungary 4 7
5 Switzerland 4 7
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6 Ireland 5 7
7 N Ireland 5 7
8 Scotland 5 7
9 Croatia 4 5