France is ready to propose airstrikes on Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s key command centres amid warnings that the Libyan regime is about to crush the rebellion.
President Sarkozy was said to have raised the prospect of “targeted bombing” as pro-Gaddafi forces retook the town of Zawiya after heavy fighting yesterday and rebels retreated from the eastern oil town of Ras Lanuf under heavy fire. James Clapper, the US Director of National Intelligence, said that the rebels would be defeated because of the Libyan regime’s superior firepower.
Mr Sarkozy presented the bombing proposal to party officials in preparation for today’s emergency meeting of European Union leaders on the crisis in Brussels. Last night he and David Cameron issued a joint appeal to the rest of the EU, insisting that Colonel Gaddafi may already be in breach of a United Nations Security Council resolution passed last month.
“This deliberate use of military force against civilians is utterly unacceptable,” they said. “As warned by the Security Council, these acts may amount to crimes against humanity.” Their words offer the strongest public signal to date that London and Paris are prepared to argue that a no-fly zone over Libya does not require a fresh and specific UN mandate.
However, the plan is struggling to gain international support and drew a defiant response from Saif al-Islam, Colonel Gaddafi’s son. The once Western-friendly face of the Gaddafi regime warned Nato to keep out of Libya and promised an all-out assault on the rebel forces in Benghazi. “We will never ever welcome Nato, we will never ever welcome Americans here. Libya is not a piece of cake,” he said.
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Mr Sarkozy infuriated Libya by becoming the first foreign leader to recognise the rebel leadership as the legitimate government of Libya. He received two ministers, Mahmud Gebril and Ali al-Essawi of the Libyan National Council, at the Elysée Palace yesterday. The official Libyan news agency responded by threatening to disgrace the President if he persisted in his campaign for military strikes, saying that it had learnt that a “grave secret is going to bring about the downfall of Sarkozy, even his prosecution in connection with the financing of his electoral campaign”.
One other diplomatic move that could clear the way for military action is a new United Nations Security Council resolution demanding a ceasefire in Libya, with airstrikes in response in the event of a breach. “There is talk of the UN Security Council calling for a ceasefire, with consensus around some sort of consequences, to deem that a trigger [for military intervention],” an EU diplomat said.
Russia originally raised the idea of a resolution calling for a ceasefire but Britain and France could pick it up after finding themselves increasingly isolated in pushing for a no-fly zone.
William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, insisted that a no-fly zone “could be implemented very quickly” and Sir John Major, whose rare media appearances are often used to smooth the terrain for Downing Street, said that the West could impose a no-fly zone without a direct UN mandate. Mr Hague added that if Colonel Gaddafi moved to crush the rebellion, support for military intervention “will greatly intensify in the coming hours or days”.
British efforts to garner international support for the no-fly zone appeared to be struggling. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Nato Secretary-General, said that the alliance would not act to implement it without a UN mandate. Instead Mr Rasmussen pledged new Nato naval forces to conduct “monitoring and surveillance” of the arms embargo on Libya.
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Mr Cameron is therefore likely to back fresh EU sanctions to target the oil revenue still flowing into Colonel Gaddafi’s coffers. Baroness Ashton of Upholland, the EU High Representative, will suggest adding the Libyan national oil company to the list of five entities whose assets are frozen. She will also propose the setting up of an escrow account to hold oil revenues in trust for the benefit of the Libyan people, according to an EU diplomat.
The Pentagon said that the rebels were on the back foot, and the presumption that the Libyan leader is likely to defeat them is one of the key considerations in discussions about whether to launch an intervention, an American defence official said.
Mr Clapper, the US intelligence chief, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Colonel Gaddafi’s forces were better equipped and had more logistical resources. “Over the longer term, the regime will prevail,” he said. His prediction of a Gaddafi victory will increase pressure on President Obama, who has so far resisted calls for military action.