When the Scottish Conservatives opened their annual conference at Murrayfield yesterday, the party and its Scottish leader almost had equal billing. The party’s Sunday name, Scottish Conservative & Unionist, was on the wall, but the slogan on the speaker’s podium simply said: “Ruth Davidson: for a strong opposition.” When Ms Davidson stood up to give her speech as Scottish party leader, she made little effort to sell Conservative policies. Instead she was selling herself. This is part of a deliberate strategy by the Scottish Tories. Election leaflets currently falling on Scottish doormats have large pictures of Ms Davidson but the only mention of the word “Conservative” is in the party’s website address.
There is a logic to this. Usually the no-hopers in Scottish politics, the Conservatives now have a goal. They are aiming to be the official opposition at Holyrood, a prospect made less outlandish by Scottish Labour’s seemingly relentless slide in popularity. Private opinion polling has told Tory strategists their party leader is more popular than the party itself. And so the Scottish Conservatives’ approach to this Holyrood election has been to amplify “Ruth” — she is invariably promoted by the party using her first name only — while turning down the dial on “Conservative”.
There is a recent precedent for such an approach. In the last Holyrood election in 2011, the SNP dropped its party name from the ballot paper and instead used the phrase “Alex Salmond for first minister”. The calculation was that although voters might not be wholly enamoured of SNP policies, including independence, they regarded Mr Salmond as the best of the available candidates for the job of running the country.
Ms Davidson aims to do something similar. Voters may not be full of enthusiasm for the Tories, but they may be persuadable that she is the best person to provide a robust counter to Nicola Sturgeon at Holyrood.
Ms Davidson’s party colleagues say the shifting sands of Scottish politics are favouring them for the first time in many years. For the first Holyrood election since 1999, there is likely to be a difference of opinion on tax. Labour, the SNP, the Lib Dems, the Greens and the leftist party Rise are all likely to have tax-raising pledges in their manifestos. The Scottish Conservatives will be distinctive in opposing tax rises, and they hope to attract the support of voters whose choice is largely determined by who will leave the most cash in their purses and wallets. The Tories also expect to benefit from a decision by Labour and the Lib Dems that support for the Union is not a prerequisite of party membership. Ms Davidson hopes that in the wake of an independence referendum that polarised Scottish opinion on the constitution, voters who identify as Unionists will draw their own conclusions and turn to the Tories.
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A clear strategy, then. But will it work? Can Ms Davidson really escape the fact that the label “Tory” is still toxic in parts of Scotland? Labour’s response to Ms Davidson’s speech yesterday served notice that voters will be constantly reminded between now and polling day that, actually, Ms Davidson is indeed a Conservative.
In this election Ms Davidson is not running as an independent. She is not standing solely as an individual. She may find it harder than she anticipates to escape the unpopular legacy of the party she happens to lead.