Russia has amassed a naval force “much larger” than its traditional fleet in the Black Sea, where warships are blockading Ukrainian ports, sinking cargo ships and shelling cities.
Cruisers, frigates, missile corvettes and amphibious landing ships capable of carrying thousands of troops have been operating off southern Ukraine.
Analysts monitoring the situation estimate that more than 30 Russian vessels are active, with some sent from the Arctic and Baltic regions before the invasion three weeks ago. This includes an auxiliary force of intelligence-gathering ships, repair vessels, tugs and minesweepers, though the number continues to change.
The large presence of major combat ships is said to be posturing for an amphibious attack on Odesa, the headquarters of the Ukrainian navy.
The Pentagon noted “a change in the maritime environment” in the Black Sea, confirming that it observed Russian landing ships and surface combatant vessels manoeuvring last week.
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A US defence official told journalists that Russian warships had begun shelling coastal areas around Odesa. The official added: “Whether this is a precursor of . . . a looming amphibious assault, we just don’t see that yet.”
Nonetheless, Ukrainian forces in the city have been digging foxholes on the beaches, laying steel hedgehogs in the sand and blocking roads with sandbags in preparation for an attack.
HI Sutton, a naval expert who has been monitoring the movement of Russian ships using open-source satellite imagery, said: “Russia has amassed a large naval force in the Black Sea . . . much larger than the traditional Black Sea Fleet. The new force is centred on amphibious warfare capabilities, meaning landing troops and supplies.
“Just like analysts counting trucks and hospitals on land before the invasion, naval analysts watch the auxiliaries. These less well known ships are often overlooked but are important. They are a difference between exercises and the real thing.”
Sutton said that such ships were sent several times to the north of the Black Sea, near Odesa. On one occasion three groups of 14 ships advanced on the coast. Civilian vessels have been caught in the war, with about 300 ships, mostly carrying grain, prevented from transporting supplies to Ukraine.
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Panama said last week that three cargo ships bearing its flag had been hit with Russian missiles and one sunk. It was reported that an Estonian-owned merchant ship sank after hitting a mine.
A crew member died when a Bangladeshi vessel was hit by a missile or bomb in the Ukrainian port of Olvia. Satellite imagery showed a Moldavian-flagged chemical tanker billowing smoke after apparently being attacked.
The Pentagon said that despite “continued naval activity in the north Black Sea off the coast of Odesa”, the shelling stopped for at least 24 hours and there was no “imminent signs of an amphibious assault”.
A report by military experts at the think tank Rusi, who have been analysing Russian attack patterns, suggested that the strikes against Odesa could be a distraction.
The analysts said that Russia could be pretending to prepare for a large sea-to-land invasion to trick Ukrainian generals. Instead they might be gearing up for a “lightning” advance north from strongholds in southern Ukraine, in order to link Russian forces together before encircling Ukrainian resistance in the eastern territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.
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Justin Crump, chief executive of the Sibylline, said: “Russia’s Black Sea Fleet also includes forces in the Mediterranean. At present the fleet is significantly expanded from its normal size.
“The force also includes many of the Russian navy’s latest frigates and currently has over 11 landing ships active off Crimea, where they are being used to make feint attacks on Odesa to distract Ukrainian forces. This group includes substantial reinforcements from the Northern and Baltic Fleets.
“Overall, with over 30 major combat vessels and also a number of effective diesel submarines, the Black Sea fleet is greatly reinforced.”
