It was the ultimate burn. When Sir Keir Starmer did his televised address to the nation on Monday night he did not once mention Boris Johnson. Instead the Labour leader projected the persona — calm, competent, principled — he hopes will propel him into Downing Street.
Labour’s lead over the Tories is now as much as nine percentage points and here in Scotland the relief among long-suffering Labour folk is palpable. Maybe, just maybe, there is a way back.
Michael Marra, perhaps the most impressive of the 2021 intake of new MSPs, tweeted: “If we are going to get rid of this Tory government us Scots now need to do our bit and back Keir as the next PM. Backing the SNP, however well intentioned, only jeopardises Labour support in other nations.”
You can see where Marra is coming from. Surely a rising Labour tide lifts all Labour boats, including those in Scotland? Surely the prospect of a Labour prime minister galvanises traditional Labour supporters everywhere, even those who have recently strayed?
Well, I have some bad news. A Labour recovery in England and Wales does not necessarily mean a Labour recovery in Scotland. A modest shift is possible but I would caution Labour to temper hopes of a dramatic recovery for red rose politics north of the Border.
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Why? The answer lies in the psychological profile of the political convert. We know this from other aspects of our lives. No one believes more fervently than a born-again Christian. No one scorns cigarettes more passionately than a former 40-a-day man.
The same applies to former Labour voters who have thrown in their lot with the SNP. There are exceptions, sure, but in my experience some of the most uncompromising SNP folk are former Labour stalwarts. Abandoning Labour after decades of loyalty was a life milestone. Souls were searched. Family traditions discarded. There was much spinning in graves.
This is why former Labour folk are often found on the SNP’s diehard fundamentalist wing. Having once backed devolution surely they would be open to the possibilities of more autonomy for Holyrood within the UK? Nope. They switched to independence to hasten a socialist Scotland. Anything short of full independence would mean their sacrifice had been for nothing.
I understand this attitude. There is an emotional logic to it. The danger is you end up looking like Comical Ali when, as now, Labour is on the move. Labour will never regain power, they say. The Tories will be in charge forever. Reform of the British state is impossible. Then before you know it the Starmer family photos are being arranged on the Downing Street mantlepiece.
Being so personally invested in independence means the chances of these voters returning to Labour are thin. This, in my view, extends even to the possibility of them casting a tactical vote to help kick out the Tories. Bridges have been burned. There is no way back.
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This is not to say Starmer’s rise will have zero impact in Scotland. Many soft SNP voters will see in the rise of UK Labour a sign of hope. Middle Scotland is still politically fluid. Scottish Labour’s best hope may be young voters whose support the nationalists take for granted. Young minds are inquisitive and restless. Underestimate their agency at your peril.
Even so, the best Scottish Labour can realistically hope for in the short and medium term is a modest boost and perhaps a return to second place in the Scottish pecking order.
A new political paradigm is taking shape and it will make demands on all of us. Even at Labour’s current level of popularity in the UK polls, Starmer will struggle to win a majority at Westminster. Unless the Tory vote suffers a spectacular collapse, Labour is likely to need the support of SNP MPs to form a government.
Let us put aside for another day the important debate about what the price of that support might be, or whether any price would in fact be necessary. Labour at a UK level needs to develop a working relationship with the SNP based on common cause and mutual trust. This at a time of antagonism and deep distrust between Scottish Labour and the SNP.
Starmer’s sudden rise in the polls requires new thinking from Anas Sarwar and Nicola Sturgeon. The task facing both leaders should not be underestimated. Each will have to dig deep into their personal political capital. Each will encounter refuseniks and obstruction, because consensus is hard and obstinacy requires no thinking at all.
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Sturgeon needs to feel her way towards an accommodation with Starmer. She needs to prepare the ground early and with care, in the certain knowledge that some in her party will see any rapprochement as a betrayal.
Sarwar’s job, no less tricky given the belligerent hatred of the SNP from unionist ultras within his membership, is exactly the same. It is to create favourable conditions for a new concordat where the SNP is Labour’s ally, not its enemy.
What makes this especially challenging is that it de-prioritises something both leaders feel in their marrow: the relentless pursuit of narrow party advantage. Even if just tactically for an agreed period of time, this has to be unplugged.
Instead, they have to create the parliamentary conditions that make it possible for Starmer to replace Johnson or whichever usurper emerges from the simmering discontent within the Tory party.
Make no mistake, this will be hard for both Sturgeon and Sarwar. It will be a sore test of their political skill, of their leadership qualities, of their ability to recognise a greater good.