Voters do not believe that the Conservative Party will cut taxes and nearly half would still vote Labour even if the economy did improve before the election, according to a new poll.
Rishi Sunak has tried to quell unrest in the party by insisting that economic revival will narrow the polls. Last year he declared victory over one of his key leadership pledges, to halve inflation. It stands at 3.4 per cent, down from 11.1 per cent in October 2022.
But a YouGov poll for The Times suggests that voters would be unlikely to reward the prime minister. In figures that will further trouble Tory MPs, 47 per cent say they would still vote Labour even with an improved economy compared with 26 per cent who would support the Conservatives.
Voters responded in a broadly similar way when asked what they would do if the economy got worse, suggesting that many had made up their minds. In total 50 per cent would support Labour if the economy got worse and 19 per cent would vote Tory.
A No 10 source insisted that support for Sunak would improve as the impact of lower inflation was felt. “People are starting to feel better off. There’s only one poll that matters and that’s the general election,” the source said.
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According to the YouGov poll, 41 per cent of voters believe that taxes will rise at the next election if the Conservatives win compared with 13 per cent who think they will go down. By comparison, 49 per cent of voters think taxes will rise if Labour wins versus 12 per cent who believe they will go down.
The government has cut 2p from national insurance, a saving that came into effect this weekend. But the freezing of personal tax thresholds has dragged more workers into higher tax brackets, and the tax burden has never been higher.
Sunak has repeatedly insisted that he wants to cut taxes but the government has been left with little headroom to do so because of anaemic growth. The economy grew by 0.1 per cent last year and slipped into recession during the last two quarters of the year.
People are pessimistic about the economy with 51 per cent believing that it will worsen in the next year. Only 13 per cent of voters think it will get better and 26 per cent think it will stay the same.
The poll also shows that between 1 and 11 per cent favour an election in one of the three final months. Sunak has indicated that he will not call an election until the latter half of this year, with October or November the most favoured months. But by far the most popular month among voters for an election is May, with 29 per cent wanting a vote as soon as possible.
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A YouGov multilevel regression and poststratification poll last week found that the Conservatives were on course to lose 210 seats in their worst result since 1997. This polling method has an established record because it works out how various types of voters in individual constituencies will probably behave on polling day.
Under the projection Labour is on course to take 403 seats with the Tories reduced to 155. In this scenario 11 cabinet ministers would lose their seats, including Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, although there is significant uncertainty at this stage and it could still be wide of the mark.
The release of the last major poll three months ago precipitated an attempt by a handful of Tories to remove Sunak. Simon Clarke, a former cabinet minister, said he should be replaced as prime minister or the Tories would be “massacred” at the general election.
Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, insisted that the party could still turn things around. “As we get into an actual election campaign, we move from a kind of referendum on the government to a choice,” he told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips on Sky News.
“I’m confident that as people face that choice and they look at the threat of Labour, whether it’s building over the green belt in my constituency, carte blanche to do that, whether it’s in relation to their employment laws which are going to destroy the jobs market or it’s in relation to their their sums that don’t add up versus our plan, you will see those numbers narrowing.”
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Dowden said that this would be “almost certainly … an election year”, hinting that it might still be held over until next year. The last possible date for the dissolution of parliament is Tuesday December 17 and elections must be held 25 working days later, meaning that the latest polling date possible would be Tuesday, January 28. Elections are generally held on Thursdays.
The government’s opponents have urged Sunak to name an election date. Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign co-ordinator, said: “The public are paying the price for the chaos of this clapped out Conservative government. The prime minister needs to get on and name a date for election rather than running scared from the voters.”
Daisy Cooper, deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, said the public “deserve the chance to deliver their verdict at the ballot box without any further delay”.
