The flight of top al-Qaeda leaders, the killing or capture of a growing number of terrorists and the admission in captured letters that mass defections and tribal opposition have brought the terrorist structure to its knees are indications that Iraq's long dark night may at last be about to lighten. The US commander in northern Iraq said yesterday that dozens of terrorist leaders were now fleeing Iraq with looted cash, attempting to regroup beyond its borders. They had been driven out by intensified pressure from US and Iraqi security forces and by the revulsion of Sunni tribal leaders, who for the past year have been actively helping to root out groups perpetrating the violence and suicide bombings. As a result, attacks across the country have dropped by 60 per cent, life is returning to the streets and markets, Iraqis are cautiously venturing outside after dark, and schools, hospitals and even railways are beginning to function normally.
This revival has been borne out in figures. The International Monetary Fund said last month that the economy is expected to find stability in 2008-09, despite continuing political and security problems. Economic growth would probably exceed 7 per cent this year and remain as high in 2009, while oil production, which accounts for 70 per cent of national income, is expected to rise by 200,000 barrels per day this year. Oil exports are now bringing in $28 billion a year compared with $8 billion in 2003. The revival is being felt across the region. Iraq's Finance Minister yesterday urged businessmen in neighbouring Jordan to invest in his country's “booming economy”.
The reduction in violence remains crucial. Hopes were raised last week by the announcement by Moqtada al-Sadr, the Shia militia leader, that he had ordered an extension to the ceasefire observed for the past six months by his al-Mahdi Army. This restraint will be vital to any reduction in sectarian murders and the steady return of exiles. Iraqis have proved themselves extraordinarily resilient. Their willingness to stay at their posts and risk violence and murder in signing up for the police and army shows immense courage; their yearning to recreate a more normal life and initiative in reopening shops and businesses, reviving patriotism (especially over Iraq's football team) and rebuilding infrastructure creates the optimism essential for survival.
The respite, however, remains frail. Al-Qaeda is not yet beaten. Two car bombs exploded in Baghdad yesterday, killing 19 people. Timed to mark the end of a two-day visit by Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, they targeted an area where tribal sheikhs from Awakening, the front opposed to al-Qaeda, had gathered. Expressing caution about the “fragile” security, Mr Gates said before leaving that he favoured a pause in the drawdown of US troops.
The challenge now facing Iraqis is to make the political progress essential to entrench reviving confidence. So far, the results have been dispiriting. The Government yesterday again failed to resolve wrangling over allocations in the $48 billion budget, especially the 17 per cent earmarked for the largely autonomous Kurdish region. The deadlock threatens vital spending needed to kickstart the economy, and follows failure also to pass a prisoner amnesty that is a precondition for the Sunni Arab bloc to return to the Shia-led Government of national unity. In the street, Iraqis are doing their utmost to get their country back on its feet. The Government must now urgently match this courage and resilience.