Exactly a year after Joe Biden was entrusted with the task of returning America to normal, voters frustrated with vaccine mandates, left-wing campaigns such as “defund the police” and gridlock in Washington swung hard against the Democrats.
The Republicans roared back in the suburbs and lured independent voters. Their governor candidates in Virginia and New Jersey showed a pathway back to power in next year’s midterm elections. It was a more dramatic swing than the usual one against a president in an “off-year” in the electoral cycle.
The Republicans capitalised on a potent mix of Democratic infighting and concerns among voters that grassroots issues are being overlooked. Mark Warner, a Democratic senator in Virginia, said that Terry McAuliffe, the party’s candidate for governor, would have fared better if his colleagues had passed Biden’s signature bills in Congress. “I wish we had passed the infrastructure deal two months ago. That would have given Biden a big win and would have helped here,” Warner said as Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate racked up votes.
However, this was only part of the story. An exit poll in Virginia for CNN put approval for Biden at 45 per cent, nine points lower than a year ago, while approval for Donald Trump was 42 per cent, two points down. The top issues were the economy (33 per cent) and education (24 per cent).
Youngkin played on parents’ fears about the divisive subject of critical race theory and pledged greater school choice, while McAuliffe appeared with the teachers’ union head, and told parents to “back off”.
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Voters showed that they expected much more than another campaign like the one run by McAuliffe, who tried to portray Youngkin as a Trump clone even as the Republican kept the former president at arm’s length.
This may be more difficult for other candidates to pull off in battleground states with Trump determined to remain a dominating force.
Youngkin’s win owed much to Democrat failures and to the fact he was a political newcomer, getting to grips with issues on voters’ minds. Last week Kamala Harris, the vice-president, warned: “What happens in Virginia will in large part determine what happens in 2022, 2024 and on.”
The Crystal Ball team at the University of Virginia moved three Democratic-held Senate seats from “leaning Democrat” to “toss-up” for 2022: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. The Republicans need only two of them to take control of the Senate by 51 to 49.
