Maoist rebels in Nepal lifted the blockade of Kathmandu before serious shortages could hurt the population, but not before they had given the world a chilling demonstration of their strength. After eight years of civil war that has spread to all 75 provinces and cost 10,000 dead, Nepal faces a watershed. Unless the newly-installed Government agrees to begin constitutional talks that could lead to the abolition of the monarchy, the rebels have threatened to reimpose their blockade within a month and step up their attacks elsewhere in the countryside.
Already the Maoists control an estimated two thirds of rural Nepal. Almost every day there are clashes with the Army, skirmishes in villages or attacks on government institutions. Officials have been kidnapped, soldiers murdered and peasants subjected to torture and harassment. In recent attacks 29 soldiers were killed in the north, and more than 1,000 Maoists stormed a district headquarters in the northwest.
The blockade of the capital, however, marked a new phase, and showed that the rebels were following classic Maoist tactics of emerging from the countryside to invest the cities, blockading them not by force but by the fear of reprisals against truckers and merchants trying to break through the siege lines. When the rebels called off their action, the ruling coalition expressed cautious hopes that peace talks could be resumed.
There are formidable obstacles to ending this war. The Maoist insurgency aims to overthrow the monarchy and replace it with a communist republic, something that neither King Gyanendra nor democrats favouring a multiparty state can countenance. There is no basis of trust for the start of any talks: the Government is demanding an end to the fighting before talks begin and is wary of any deal with a movement that has already twice signed a ceasefire, in 2001 and 2003, and twice resumed hostilities. For their part, the rebels scorn the new coalition, even though it contains communists, knowing that it does not have a free hand from the still-powerful King.
Militarily, the war has reached a stalemate. The Maoists have bases in at least seven neighbouring Indian states, and in much of Nepal have replaced the Government as the only authority. But they are poorly armed, and their supply lines are being disrupted by India, which has moved decisively to tighten border controls. Despite claiming Mao as their inspiration, the rebels receive no support from China, apprehensive of the turmoil on its border. Britain, with its long associations and historic debt to the Gurkhas, has promised political and military support. So too have India and America.
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The Maoist uprising has severely damaged the economy in what was already one of the world’s poorest countries. Rebel success is not the result of skilful leadership, however, but because successive governments in Kathmandu have been weak, faction-ridden and corrupt, and have promoted no clear strategy to deal with the challenge. The Government needs to regain the initiative. It cannot allow further humiliation in Kathmandu, but it could make cosmetic concessions on the most recent demands: that it investigate the disappearance of leftist activists and — however absurdly — it cease labelling the Maoists terrorists.
The Government could also begin discussions on setting up an assembly to draft a new constitution — especially as this might widen splits within the rebel movement. But it needs a free hand. The King, whose own position is far less secure than his revered murdered predecessor’s, should give the coalition full authority. Otherwise his throne, his capital and his people will face increasing danger and further bloodshed.