Angela Merkel’s speech announcing that Europe should take its destiny into its own hands because it could no longer “fully count” on the US and UK felt like a significant moment.
It was picked up around the world and seen by some as a turning point in the history of the post-war western alliance — the moment when the continent drew a line and began to move away from its traditional Anglo-Saxon partners.
Yet this is unlikely to have been the German chancellor’s aim.
Nato, a cornerstone of the western partnership, is as relevant as ever for Europeans nervous of an aggressive Russia. Mrs Merkel has committed to increase German defence spending towards the 2 per cent of GDP goal set by Nato in a clear break from the country’s recent historical norms, something she is taking a lot of flak over from other parties. Defence spending is not a vote-winner here.
Mrs Merkel is well-known for her Atlanticism and was also strongly criticised for standing solidly behind the US during the Snowden revelations of mass surveillance, including of her own phone.
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So what really lay behind her outburst last weekend, described in a leader article in The Times two days later as “wrong, misguided and dangerously inflammatory”? Mere frustration or something more?
Here is a reminder of what she said at an election rally in Bavaria: “The times in which we can fully count on others are somewhat over, as I have experienced in the past few days . . . And that is why I can only say that we Europeans must really take our fate into our own hands — of course in friendship with the United States of America, in friendship with Great Britain, and as good neighbours wherever that is possible also with other countries, even with Russia. But we need to know we must fight for our own future, as Europeans, for our destiny.”
It was not the first time Mrs Merkel has spoken of the need for the EU to focus on its own destiny in the era of Trump and Brexit. She used some similar language in January after Mr Trump’s interview with The Times when he said other countries would leave the EU following Britain’s example and criticised Mrs Merkel’s immigration policy. “I think we Europeans have our fate in our own hands,” Mrs Merkel said then, before adding: “I am personally waiting for the inauguration of the US president. Then of course we will work with him on all levels.”
Mrs Merkel has now had two unsatisfactory encounters with the US leader, first in Washington and then in Italy at the G7. She concluded he will probably pull the US out of the Paris climate accord and heard him renew his public attack on Germany’s trade surplus as “very bad”.
All of this bodes very badly for the G20 gathering she will host in Hamburg in July, which Mr Trump is due to attend, and which Mrs Merkel was hoping to focus on global climate action. So it is no surprise that she is annoyed with the US president — the surprising thing was the open declaration of her irritation from someone who usually weighs her words very carefully.
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While she knows that her remarks are watched internationally, however, the primary target was her domestic audience. Mrs Merkel was in a beer tent on a Sunday in Bavaria at an election rally, speaking as the leader of the Christian Democratic Union party as much as German chancellor. She was entering full election mode with the national vote now under four months away.
The European topic is one of the strongest cards of her rival for the chancellery, Martin Schulz of the Social Democratic Party, a former president of the European parliament. And Germany remains a strongly pro-EU nation.
The SPD has been trying to score points domestically by being hyper-critical of President Trump for his anti-European and anti-EU behaviour. Senior figures in the centre-left party were suggesting that Mrs Merkel was letting down Germany by being too soft on Mr Trump. Other parties on the left joined in, seeing bashing Mr Trump as a way of clawing back Mrs Merkel’s big domestic lead.
She seems to have decided that, while she could defend the US over spying under the otherwise popular President Obama, she could allow herself to be more critical of President Trump’s America.
Seen in this light, perhaps the most worrying thing about her words — certainly for British ears — was actually her close linking of the UK with the US. Again the main focus was the domestic voter and the main aim was to neutralise the pro-European appeal of Mr Schulz. For even while the SPD has plummeted in opinion polls in recent weeks, Mrs Merkel’s team are aware of how volatile voting intentions have become across Europe, with wildly seesawing ratings for the SPD this year. Above everything else, Mrs Merkel will do what she must to ensure a healthy majority for her party in September. She knows that this is her primary role.
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It means that the topic of Brexit will be dragged deeper into German domestic politics just at the crucial moment when the divorce talks get under way. The European Commission will lead the talks, but expect more strong anti-Brexit rhetoric out of Germany in the months to come.
Mrs Merkel’s giant presence internationally does mean that every time she opens her mouth we hear something of global significance. She is first and foremost a national leader looking out for her own voters. As a German backbench MP in Mrs Merkel’s CDU party reminded me this week, she is now, even more than usual, in Germany First mode.