ONE day before the European Union’s 25 leaders meet to choose Romano Prodi’s successor as President of the European Commission, the race is wide open.
In recent weeks a dozen names from 11 countries have surfaced, but a firm favourite has yet to emerge.
“It’s going to turn into a three- or four-sided tug of war and everyone’s going to pull until they all fall over. It’s so open, it’s unbelievable. A lot of people see themselves as a compromise candidate,” one Brussels diplomat said.
Changes in the EU’s rules and dynamics have added to the complexity. For the first time, no prime minister can veto a candidate as John Major did when he rejected the Jean-Luc Dehaene, the Belgian Premier of the day, in 1994 on the ground that he was too much of a federalist.
The ability of France and Germany to impose a candidate has been weakened by the arrival of ten new countries with a more Anglo-Saxon view of life.
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There are complex behind-the-scenes trade-offs to be made. Germany wants the new economic super-commissioner’s job to protect its industry from the intervention of Brussels.
France wants Pierre de Boissieu to remain in day-to-day charge of the Council of Ministers, which processes and approves all EU legislation. Britain could be bought off with concessions on the constitution. After Signor Prodi’s lacklustre performance the leaders want a Commission president strong enough to improve the EU’s dismal public standing — but not another Jacques Delors who tells them what to do. They must also take account of last weekend’s European elections.
The new European Parliament must ratify their choice. Christian Democrats, the largest grouping, are insisting that the President should come from their political family.
Until last week Guy Verhofstadt, the boyish-looking Belgian Prime Minister, was front-runner to head the 25,000-strong Commission, which proposes and enforces all EU legislation. He is supported by Germany and France, and “is still the man to beat,” a senior Commission official said yesterday.
But Britain has now made clear its opposition to an avowed federalist who also opposed the Iraq war, and Mr Verhofstadt’s prospects were further dented by his party’s humiliating defeat in last Sunday’s regional elections in his native Flanders.
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Tony Blair is said to favour Antonio Vitorino, the current Portuguese commissioner and Socialist former Foreign Minister. He has impressed with his diplomatic skills and mastery of his complex constitutional and criminal justice portfolios.
The most obvious compromise candidate would be Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg’s laconic and heavy-smoking Prime Minister for the past ten years.
However, Mr Juncker would be the third Commission president from tiny Luxembourg in 20 years — the last one, Jacques Santer, was a disaster who had to stand down in disgrace. Mr Juncker also won his country’s general election last Sunday, and it would be extremely hard for him to break his promise to the electorate by departing immediately for Brussels.
There was a flurry of interest in Chris Patten, the European Commissioner for External Affairs. But his French is poor, and it is thought that Paris would oppose any candidate from a country so uncommitted to Europe.
Javier Solana, the EU’s foreign policy chief and former Nato Secretary-General, is eminently well qualified, but he has already been earmarked as the EU’s first foreign minister.
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History suggests that the job will eventually go to a dark horse. There are several around. They include Paavo Lipponen, the former Finnish Prime Minister, though he is hardly charismatic; Pat Cox, the outgoing European Parliament President, who has considerable presentational skills, but few major cheerleaders except himself; Bertie Ahern, the Irish Prime Minister who will chair the two-day Brussels summit; and Wolfgang Schüssel, the Austrian Prime Minister, who has support from member states that once comprised the Austro-Hungarian Empire. It is barely four years, however, since the EU ostracised Herr Schüssel’s Government for including Jorg Haider’s far-right Freedom Party.
Gridlock is a distinct possibility. “The heads of government want a decision, but they might fail. Instead, they could all come back in a week or two and decide it over dinner,” said one EU diplomat.