What Tony wants he can no longer be sure of getting. So the story of Tony Blair and the new post, in the Lisbon treaty, of president of the European Council is much more complicated than just his ambitions, or the willingness of Gordon Brown to back him (they have not yet had a serious discussion about it). This is a multi-dimensional exercise involving 27 countries, the elections to the European Parliament next year and the interplay of several jobs. There are five main hurdles.
First, the Lisbon treaty has to be ratified. The Bill is chugging through the Commons despite Tory protests about inadequate parliamentary time and the absence of a referendum. The latter is a trust issue that may do more damage than arguments over the substance of the treaty. But the Bill should be clear of the Commons by Easter and should be law by the summer. Despite a postponement of the vote in Slovakia yesterday the main obstacle is the Irish referendum. The timing is still not decided, partly because of unresolved talks between the parties in Dublin about whether it would occur at the same time as a children’s rights referendum. The aim is still that all EU countries should have ratified by the autumn.
Secondly, the EU then has to decide how quickly to implement the treaties. This has become tied in with the EU elections in June next year, which will be followed by the formation of a new commission requiring approval by the Strasbourg Parliament. All are linked. How well the centre Right or centre Left do will affect the choice of president of the Commission. Many countries are expected to wait until then before deciding who becomes president, or permanent chairman, of the European Council (of heads of government), and also the chief foreign affairs spokesman and chairman of its council of ministers.
Thirdly, as ratification nears, the enthusiasm of some leaders for the post could lessen. A head of government of a country with the six-monthly presidency of the EU will no longer strut Europe and the world and will be in the shadow of the new president. Although they will never say it they may not want to share the stage with someone as high profile as Mr Blair.
Fourthly, there are likely to be several candidates. Jean-Claude Juncker, of Luxembourg, a previous contender for the presidency of the commission, is a runner, playing the small country card against domination by representatives of big countries. Another possibility is Jos? Manuel Barroso, the current President of the Commission, who is said by some of his allies to be interested in switching to the post.
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Fifthly, while Mr Blair has his fans he also has many critics, mainly but not solely because of the Iraq war. His closeness to President Bush and Britain’s exclusion from the euro and the Schengen agreements will count against him. The backing of Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President, is also double-edged. While Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor is, at present, said to be holding back, others on the centre Right, including leaders of the European Parliament, are warmer. The fate of his candidacy may depend on whether the centre Right wins back power in the coming Spanish and Italian elections. So expect months of manoeuvring and a last-minute deal balancing the Left and Right.