Once the initial shock of the Brexit referendum result in June 2016 subsided, some small comfort was taken in Brussels and Dublin that the British government had a period of time to meticulously prepare for what would be a highly complex withdrawal from the European Union.
Unfortunately what followed was quite the opposite, with a Tory government distracted by internecine warfare between different Brexit factions rather than uniting around the urgent need to prepare for immensely difficult negotiations with the remaining EU members.
When the negotiations began in earnest last year after months of vague statements and fudge from Theresa May, it was clear that much of the groundwork had been left undone by the UK. The inevitable result of this failure to grasp the massive difficulties posed by Brexit, in particular for the island of Ireland, led to the tense stand-off between the Irish and British governments and the DUP in December over the Irish border.
The Irish government’s tough stance, one which had the solid backing of the other 26 member states, eventually yielded the desired outcome in relation to maintaining an open border, but that hard-won concession from phase one of the Brexit talks was not the end of the matter; in reality it is still very much a concern, and will remain so throughout the remainder of the Brexit talks.
Despite some encouraging noises from Brussels at the end of last year that the British side had put in sufficient work to merit progressing to phase two, concerns are now growing that once again the UK is under-prepared for what will be even more sensitive and complicated negotiations, and that backsliding on the Irish border promises might take place.
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Yesterday John Bruton, the former taoiseach and former EU ambassador to the US, called for the two-year Brexit negotiation to be extended. He told RTÉ Radio 1’s Morning Ireland that mistakes are inevitably made when insufficient time is given to negotiations and with just over a year left before the negotiating period ends in March 2019, the time pressure is adding to a “fevered atmosphere” in British politics.
He warned that Ireland would suffer as much as the UK if the right deal was not reached and while this might be stating the obvious, it is a point worth making time and again. In their anxiety to proceed to phase two talks, the British government held their noses when they agreed the border deal in December. There is no guarantee that the hardline Brexiteers will agree to adhere to it when it is translated from the polysemous language of last month into definitive and legally binding text.
The British insistence that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed is a perilous position from the Irish point of view, and Mr Varadkar reflected this unease in Davos last week when he said that he and his government “fully expect” that the December agreement will be reflected in the legal text of the withdrawal treaty.
So there are sizeable challenges ahead for the Irish government as the Brexit talks move forward to the next phase. As stated by Mr Varadkar, it is crucial that the British sign up to the commitments on the Irish border that were pledged in December. It is also imperative that the very impressive display of unity between the 27 member states in the face of Britain’s desire to fudge the border question is maintained.
Anyone on the Irish side who assumes the hard lifting is done and that we can now take a back seat in phase two of the talks is in for a rude awakening. As the pressure mounts on the British prime minister to conclude talks as quickly as possible, Ireland’s dilemma could end up on the sidelines.
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If more time is required to do the job properly, then the Irish government should hope that the UK does seek an extension.