The effectiveness of powersharing has to be examined in the context of the latest crisis to hit Northern Ireland. Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary, told the House of Commons yesterday that a report into the status of paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland had concluded that structures of the Provisional IRA still existed.
More damning, however, was the finding that an IRA army council was still operating, and that it held sway over Sinn Fein. It was almost of secondary importance that the three-person committee said that the proscribed organisation is committed to the peace process.
The report written by Lord Carlile of Berriew, a British Liberal Democrat, Rosalie Flanagan, a retired senior Northern Ireland civil servant, and Stephen Shaw, a solicitor, also found that loyalist paramilitary groups had not disbanded and had access to weapons.
Peter Robinson, the Northern Ireland first minister, walked out of the Stormont executive last month because George Hamilton, the head of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), linked the August murder of Kevin McGuigan, a former IRA man, with present members of the provisionals.
This report flatly contradicts claims by Sinn Fein that the IRA no longer exists in any form. The commission based its findings on evidence from a number of intelligence services. It is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of paramilitary activity in the province since the IRA decommissioned in 2005.
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Sinn Fein’s credibility has been seriously undermined by this report. It is likely to be a long and arduous process to rebuild trust and restore the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement, and there is no guarantee of a successful outcome.
Mr Robinson has signalled that the Democratic Unionist party is willing to take up its ministerial portfolios once again in an effort to find a workable solution for the executive. The most obvious starting point is to put in place an agreed framework for ensuring that the remaining structures of all paramilitary groups are disbanded and all weapons are decommissioned.
Other challenges are looming. There are very serious outstanding allegations of wrongdoing against Mr Robinson relating to Nama’s sale of Project Eagle. It has to be emphasised that these claims are completely denied by Mr Robinson, but if anything substantive emerges from the investigation by the Stormont finance committee or a criminal inquiry, then the political ramifications will be enormous.
Over the longer term, the UK government’s referendum on membership of the EU could also have significant consequences for Northern Ireland. If British voters want to leave, then Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, has said that their decision will prompt another referendum on independence. With popular support for the Scottish National party at historically high levels, there is a good chance of Scotland seceding.
If Scotland takes that course, there would be uncertainty over the future of the United Kingdom. How long would there be before demands for a border poll in Northern Ireland?
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What is increasingly obvious is that the Northern Ireland powersharing executive is not equipped to govern a state with so many conflicting demands. The executive was by far the most suitable form of government when power was devolved to Northern Ireland after the Good Friday Agreement.
After all, the state had been without a government since the Sunningdale Agreement collapsed in the early 1970s. Over the intervening four decades more than 3,000 people from the nationalist and unionist communities died in a bloody conflict. It was imperative that political parties representing the varied religious and political backgrounds in the province were represented in a powersharing agreement.
The province had a lamentable history of exclusion and discrimination. But the Good Friday Agreement is 17 years old. The present impasse should be used as an opportunity to re-examine governance structures in Northern Ireland. The yawning chasm between the economic policies of Sinn Fein and the DUP is summed up by the failure, since the start of this year, to reach agreement on welfare reform.
In the longterm, the biggest casualty of political fudge is the economy: without growth, unemployment and dependency on the state will increase. These are the conditions that create political instability. It is probably too soon to replace the executive with a majority rule parliament, but the powersharing system is not working.
Enda Kenny and David Cameron have never made Northern Ireland a priority of their respective administrations. It is going to take a huge amount of energy and imagination to steer the state out of the crisis. Both governments need to re-engage.