Neither David Cameron nor Theresa May will be surprised by the latest migration figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). They know better than anyone how little has been done since the last set to curb the flow of migrants into Britain. That flow is up by a third compared with the same period last year, to 330,000. More people entered the country to live and work in the past year than in any of the previous ten. The number arriving from Romania and Bulgaria has doubled. The number from outside the EU, over which Britain should have full control, has risen by a quarter.
The Conservatives promised controlled immigration, not mass immigration, in their manifesto. To that end they stuck to an “ambition” of cutting net inward migration to the tens of thousands. That looks even less achievable now than when it was a “target”. Immigration is not controlled. It is out of control, and the public has every reason to fear that the country has no long-term immigration plan beyond turning a blind eye.
The situation is precarious but can be rescued. The government must commit to proper policing of Britain’s borders and to achieving a sensible bargain with Brussels. In return for accepting a reasonable number of Syrian refugees, Mr Cameron must insist on his right to set new rules on benefits and tax credits for European Union migrant workers as part of his larger renegotiation. Anything less would not qualify as a renegotiation; nor would it ease the looming crisis posed by surging numbers beating a path to Britain’s shores.
Immigration is integral to Britain’s identity and a vote of confidence in the economy. It is a modest net contributor to GDP, and, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, can help to control government debt over the long term by boosting the share of the population in work and paying tax. At the same time there is no doubt that the uncontrolled immigration Britain has seen from successive east European EU entrants can impose unsustainable burdens — social as well as economic — on communities unused to change.
This spring The Times reported from Wisbech, a Cambridgeshire town with five Ukip councillors and the unsolicited nickname “Little Latvia”. The government’s unsurprising failure since then to keep its “no ifs, no buts” promise on migrant numbers is not just a political embarrassment. It is fuel for the Conservatives’ anti-immigrant wing and for the hard right.
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The new ONS numbers include a figure of 196,000 for net migration from outside the EU. Some of these were students who will eventually return home. But too many will have exploited border controls and asylum rules that are simply not working. Solutions are available. Belgium has introduced a fast-track asylum review system for applicants from the west Balkans in which buses are at hand for the immediate return of those denied entry. The disincentive has proved so effective that the buses are scarcely needed.
Such systems are not applicable for migrants from within the EU, but here too the government must insist on fundamental change. It has shown that a modest three-month delay in the payment of in-work benefits can cut the number of new applicants. That must be extended to four years and to the payment of in-work tax credits, which are more generous than elsewhere in Europe. Govern- ment lawyers have warned that Brussels will deem this discriminatory. If so it is an argument that Britain must fight and win. In an ideal world new EU migrants would have precisely the same access to benefits as British nationals, but the current emergency is not ideal and the proposed solution would erode no one’s freedom of movement.
Immigration at present rates threatens rather than strengthens Britain’s traditional welcome to strivers from every continent. Mr Cameron must take a stand before it is too late.