Parliament fought tooth and nail last year to see the government’s assessments of the economic impact of Brexit. Eventually MPs were fobbed off with wordy “sectoral analyses” and told that economic work talked up by ministers did not exist. It must do, because some of it has leaked. A government paper predicts that the economy will be damaged in every modelled Brexit scenario. Theresa May should now give the order to publish it in full. Voters have a right to see what is being done in their name and with their money. If the work is incomplete, it can be added to later. If it is politically embarrassing, these are not blushes to be spared.
According to the assessment, the UK economy would be 8 per cent smaller in 15 years’ time if Britain left the EU without any trade agreement. The economy would be 5 per cent smaller if ministers managed to secure a comprehensive trade deal, and 3 per cent smaller if Britain stayed in the European single market, like Norway. New trade deals with other countries would add only about 0.6 per cent to GDP in a best-case scenario, one in which Britain successfully concludes deals with the United States, China, India, Australia, the Gulf countries and the nations of southeast Asia. It says that almost every sector would suffer in every scenario, as would every region of Britain.
Eurosceptics have correctly pointed out the poor record of forecasters, particularly when the Treasury is involved. During the referendum campaign it predicted an “immediate and profound” economic shock if the country voted to leave, followed by a year-long recession. Instead the economy grew. This is an argument for reading economic forecasts warily and not as prophecy. Events, such as a delay in the triggering of Article 50, a monetary stimulus or unexpectedly robust consumer demand can easily overtake predictions.
Yet that is a poor argument for keeping the analysis secret. It was conducted using taxpayers’ money under the direction of elected represen- tatives whom the public must be able to hold to account. It was commissioned to inform seismic policy choices that the government, parliament and the people have yet to make. Those who think the analysis right should want it published so they can drop a copy into every neighbour’s letterbox. Those who think it too unreliable to bother with should want the document published even more so they can explain just what is wrong with it. In truth, the headline numbers accord with common-sense facts that any non-economist can grasp: erecting trade barriers with Britain’s top export market, in search of uncertain new opportunities in faraway countries, carries considerable economic risks.
Steve Baker, a minister at the Brexit department, told MPs that the analysis does not assess the impact of the government’s plan for a bespoke free trade deal. Civil servants could be forgiven for that omission, since the government has yet to articulate a vision for any such deal. Once ministers have worked out what a bespoke deal looks like, they can order the publication of that analysis too.
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Mr Baker also says that revealing government thinking would undermine the national interest. This claim is either disingenuous or naive. The European Commission has access to the same methods and software as Whitehall. It is the British public, not Brussels, that this government is keeping in the dark.