We may be less than a fortnight from a decision to break up the UK. Our YouGov poll today shows not only a remarkable two-point lead for the “yes” camp, but also that it has built up what could be an unstoppable momentum. For many in the rest of the UK, who have probably paid only limited attention to the Scottish referendum debate, but more particularly to Westminster’s politicians, this is a wake-up call more bracing than any number of ice buckets.
Independence will be bad for Scotland’s economy and could disrupt the UK recovery. Our economics editor points out today that an independent Scotland is likely to be poorer, more unstable and require deeper cuts in public spending than if it remains part of the UK. By the 2020s the North Sea will be bringing in less than £2bn a year in revenues. The gap between its onshore tax base and Scottish public spending — roughly a sixth bigger than the UK average — will be unsustainably wide, requiring painful surgery.
Talk by Alex Salmond, the first minister, of a Scotland lavishly funding its public services and also establishing its own sovereign wealth fund has successfully soothed the fears of the Scottish electorate but his vision is unviable. His talk of an independent Scotland reneging on its share of UK debt should be a national embarrassment.
Yet for many voters in Scotland all this can be filed in the negative box. They, it seems, prefer the cheery nonsense of a lovable rogue than the hard-headed analysis of Alistair Darling and Better Together. Mr Darling’s safe pair of hands were not best suited to this battle of emotions.
The referendum campaign reminds us how far mainstream politicians have fallen in public esteem. The fact that David Cameron is trusted by only 23% of Scottish voters in a country with one Tory MP is no surprise. But for Ed Miliband to fare no better is astonishing. Gordon Brown is less trusted than Mr Salmond, or his deputy Nicola Sturgeon.
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Voters in Scotland either do not believe the warnings or they think being free of Westminster will be a price worth paying. They do not necessarily believe the first minister’s promise of sunlit uplands — more Scots expect to be financially worse off than better off as a result of independence — but they are prepared to do it anyway.
There are 11 days left to save the union. Can it be saved? The shift towards “yes” is undeniable but the outcome remains too close to call. The 1995 Quebec referendum, when polls pointed to a “yes” but voters did not take the plunge, offers some comfort.
Not enough. Those responsible for taking the fight to the “yes” camp — and that means all the main parties in Westminster — have sleepwalked into this. Now they have a few days to persuade voters in Scotland that their future lies with the union.
It was a mistake not to include greater autonomy for Scotland, which was most voters’ preference, on the ballot paper. It has been a mistake not to spell out more clearly what Scotland would gain in the event of a “no” vote. There is an imbalance between Scotland’s control over its public spending, some 60% of the total, and its revenue-raising powers, just 12%.
Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, has recognised this. The Tories would give Holyrood full income tax powers, making it accountable for 40% of what it spends, and are open to a share of Scottish VAT receipts being assigned to Scotland. Labour has been much more cautious which seriously undermined Mr Darling’s case in the television debates.
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Many Scots would prefer more devolution to independence but need to be won over. The Westminster parties must agree on Scotland’s future fiscal autonomy and spell it out. It may be their last chance.