About one in 14 people in Scotland caught Covid-19 last week. The Office for National Statistics’ new infection survey showed that 376,300 people in Scotland recorded a positive test result, equating to 7.15 per cent of the population, in the week ending March 12.
Humza Yousaf, the health secretary, has told the Covid-19 recovery committee that Scottish health boards are experiencing the “toughest week” of the pandemic yet.
Professor Linda Bauld, a public health expert at Edinburgh University, said the results were not surprising. “This is not unexpected at all,” she said. “The reason we’re seeing an increase is because of BA.2 — the sublineage of Omicron.
“It is more transmissible than Omicron and has both a growth advantage and a significantly higher secondary-attack rate. In other words, if you get it and you’re living in a household with somebody else, the likelihood of them catching it is significantly higher than the original Omicron strain.”
About 3.3 million people across the UK were thought to have caught the coronavirus last week, up from 2.6 million the previous week. In Scotland, infections have now risen for seven weeks in a row. The number of people in hospitals with the virus also continues to rise.
Advertisement
“We seem to be ahead of the curve,” Bauld said. “We’ve got big hospital numbers because there’s probably a slight vaccine-waning effect, where older age groups are not as well protected as they were earlier because the vaccines have waned.
“The reason our first minister and the cabinet decided to keep face masks at the review on Tuesday was precisely because of these figures. The most recent data, which is ahead of the ONS, is concerning. But infections have gone up everywhere in the UK, not just Scotland.”
The rollout of fourth vaccinations started in care homes this month and people older than 75 are expected to be eligible from next week.
Infections in England are also thought to have increased. About one person in 20, or 2.7 million people, had Covid-19 in the week ending March 12, up from one in 25 the previous week.
Wales has also experienced a second jump in infections, climbing from 97,900 people, or one in 30, to 125,400, or one in 25. In Northern Ireland, the ONS described the trend as “uncertain” after the numbers dropped slightly from one in 13 to one in 14 in the latest survey.
Advertisement
Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute at the University of Oxford, said: “The ONS survey shows evidence for a sharp uptick in the cases of Covid-19. Prevalence in Scotland is quite remarkable, 71 per 1,000 people, and testament to the infectivity of the new strain. It is dramatically improved compared to the original strain.
“England is not far behind, with 50 per 1000 — I would expect England to match Scotland. The reality is that differences in control measures between the countries are meaningless. Prevalence is increasing in every area and across age groups.
“Without vaccines, this would be bleak for this country. Countries with poor vaccination rates face a very challenging future. At this level of prevalence, and [after] the decision not to halt the spread, the most likely outcome is that almost everyone who is susceptible is going to be infected.
“For the UK, my main concern is for the vulnerable for whom this disease is serious and for those whose lives will be blighted by long Covid. Every effort must be made to triple vaccinate as many people as possible, quadruple vaccinate the most vulnerable, and make available antivirals.”
