It is often only after a debilitating war, a series of atrocities or the threat of all-out civil war that an unusual opportunity for peace sometimes appears in the Middle East. After the inconclusive war in Lebanon, the Gaza rocket attacks and Israeli retaliatory airstrikes and the armed clashes between Palestinian factions, such a chance now presents itself. Unilateral and seemingly un-coordinated initiatives, on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides, have created conditions where, for the first time in many months, a return to dialogue and the elusive “road map” to peace may be possible. It may be brief and it may be evanescent; but it must not be lost.
Two important developments have raised hopes. The first is the ceasefire in Gaza. After five months of rocket and bazooka attacks launched from the densely populated Gaza slums, which have hit Israeli settlements and drawn deadly retaliatory airstrikes, the main militant groups have announced a truce. It is shaky, has already been ignored by at least one extremist faction, but, so far, has generally held. This has prompted Mahmoud Abbas, the moderate Palestinian President, to request the swift deployment in Gaza of an armed Palestinian brigade, currently stationed in Jordan, to reinforce the ceasefire. Israel appears ready to agree.
The second initiative is the offer by Ehud Olmert, the Israeli Prime Minister, to “reach out the hand of peace” to his Palestinian neighbours — and, specifically, to reduce checkpoints, release frozen funds to Palestinians and free prisoners. He also said that Israel would pull out of the West Bank and uproot settlements under a final peace deal. This is an unusually bold move. Since the Lebanon war, Mr Olmert has been in deep political trouble. His popularity hovers around 29 per cent. His Government is riven by factions and defections and now depends on support from several hardline rightwingers. Kadima, his new party, cannot yet draw on voter loyalty from the Israeli public. Until now, the Prime Minister seemed paralysed by indecision, unable to do more than hunker down and strike back at Israel’s enemies.
His offer goes to the heart of many Palestinian grievances. It will, as intended, reach out to moderates who have despaired at getting support for a formula that would force Hamas to recognise and deal with Israel. It strengthens the hand of Mr Abbas in his struggle with Hamas militants, and may now speed the formation of a government of national unity. That, in turn, could persuade Western governments to resume funding for the Palestinian Authority, which, if the money is not diverted, would ease the pain of the more vulnerable Palestinians.
Outsiders have been quick to build on these two developments. Egypt, which has been working on a formula for a prisoner exchange, is pushing for the release of Gilad Schalit, the Israeli corporal whose kidnapping was a catalyst for war. His release — in return for the freeing of Palestinian prisoners — would lift Israeli morale. Jordan, playing host to President Bush today, seems to be using its good offices wisely. Condoleezza Rice is to meet Mr Abbas tomorrow; Mr Bush may then be able to announce a fresh initiative. Progress is the region depends on confidence, courage and mutually reinforcing initiatives. It would be naive to be optimistic after all that has occurred but there is cause for less pessimism.