Oil prices rose for the third consecutive day today as the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its most upbeat data for 10 months and suggested the global recession might be past its peak.
In its closely watched monthly survey, the Paris-based agency said that global oil demand would fall by 2.9 per cent to 83.3 million barrels a day this year, a less severe fall than it predicted last month.
In May, the IEA was expecting a 3 per cent annual fall in demand, the sharpest rate of decline since 1981.
“These revisions do no necessarily imply the beginnings of a global economic recovery and may only signal the bottoming out of the recession,” the IEA said.
Since predicting in August that 2009 global oil demand would reach 87.8 million barrels a day, the IEA has steadily lowered its forecasts as the financial crisis plunged the world into the deepest global recession since the Great Depression.
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But the price of oil has gained over the past weeks, rising from near $35 a barrel in March to highs above $72 today, their highest level so far this year.
Prices were pushed up particularly by this week’s announcement that stockpiles of US oil tumbled by 4.4 million barrels last week — far more than market expectations of a 700,000-barrel drop.
Rising oil prices could quickly lead to consumers paying more at the petrol pump.
Last month’s rise to $60 a barrel already helped to push petrol prices to £1 a litre, according to figures collated by the AA. Last July, when oil peaked at $139.83 a barrel, petrol rose to 118.2p a litre.
The figures come as Tony Hayward, the chief executive of BP, warned yesterday that dwindling demand for oil will see global oil production fall.
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Gains in energy efficiency will lead, ultimately, to falling oil demand, he said. Indeed, consumption of oil in the developed world fell by 1.6 per cent last year, the largest drop since 1982, and the decline is set to continue.
“The world will be able to deliver the oil demand required,” Mr Hayward said. “BP is unlikely to sell more gasoline to Americans than it sold in the first half of 2008. Energy efficiency means demand from OECD countries will continue to decline.”
The IEA based its upward revision, which translated into 120,000 barrels a day, on data from the 30 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, where there were signs of increased activity in the petrochemical sector.
The agency, however, noted that the rebound in petrochemicals was possibly due to restocking, as demand for transportation fuels remained weak.