The number of Chinese undergraduates at British universities will soar in the next few years as China’s 18-year-old population grows, a report claims.
It says that rising numbers of middle-class parents are shunning the Chinese system in favour of universities abroad.
Almost 29,000 candidates from China have applied to start undergraduate degrees at British universities this autumn, up from 25,800 last year and 21,250 in 2020. The report by Sinorbis, a digital marketing group, predicts the number will grow to 50,000 by 2030.
“One of the most critical factors that will drive growth is China’s 18-year-old population, which has started to climb again following a sharp decline in 2006,” it says. “This cohort of students is expected to increase approximately 5 per cent by 2030, which equates to 16.5 million people.”
The UK is a popular choice, the report says. It predicts that by 2030 about one in 700 Chinese in their mid-twenties will have studied in Britain.
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“The key driver behind the decision by Chinese students to seek education abroad is China’s hyper-competitive school system,” the report claims.
To land a university place in China, pupils must do well in the gaokao, the national college entrance examination reputed to be “one of the world’s toughest exams”. The Sinorbis study says parents hoping to spare their children the “pressure-cooker” cycle at school may decide on an international education as early as nursery age.
Britain attracts Chinese applicants because degrees and doctorates can be obtained swiftly and its institutions have good reputations, Sinorbis says. It warns, however, that universities face increasing competition and should develop strategies to sustain the recruitment of Chinese students.
Senior MPs and others have warned universities against an overreliance on China. Chris Philp, the minister for tech and the digital economy, said yesterday that universities should be cautious about students from China, which has “a very clear strategy of seeking to acquire critical intellectual property”.
He added: “You want to forget about geopolitics and just collaborate openly but I think that is not how states like China view higher education.”
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Philp, who was at a Times Higher Education conference, said no university should collaborate with Russian institutions, because of the Ukraine war. The UK is reviewing its research links but has not yet introduced a boycott.
Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the Commons foreign affairs committee, said it was encouraging that there was such strong demand for British universities. “But like any industry, we need to be careful that we don’t become financially over-reliant on one country,” he said. “Dependency creates weakness.”