1. Cop in focus
We’ve heard from Boris Johnson, Greta Thunberg, Xi Jinping, Prince Charles, the Queen, Alok Sharma, Sir David Attenborough and countless other luminaries. But what, if anything, are the public making of Cop26?
As voters and consumers it is they, after all, who have a decisive role to play in ensuring climate pledges are borne out with action – as campaigners sceptical of the transition to net zero know all too well.
Yesterday the Queen called on world leaders to “rise above the politics of the moment”, look beyond their own lifetimes and “answer the call of future generations” with the ambitious deal that currently appears likely to elude the delegations in Glasgow.
But what is altogether less clear from Times Radio’s most recent focus group with the nation’s swing voters – to be broadcast on Matt Chorley’s show at 11am today – is the extent of public pressure today.
This week’s panel of undecided voters – all aged between 25-75 and resident in Greater Manchester, Derby or Plymouth – were for the most part aware that Cop was happening. They were rather less convinced, however, that it would end up a success – if world leaders managed to reach agreement.
Advertisement
There is concern that the government’s approach to green issues is altogether too “slow and half-hearted”. As Chloe in Oldham put it to former No 10 pollster James Johnson: “Why is it this late? It’s been an issue for ages.”
Ian in Plymouth asked: “Lots of promises – but who will enforce it?” Neil in Oldham, meanwhile, was sceptical of the chances of meaningful progress without buy-in from the likes of China and Russia: “It should be the biggest polluters that should be dealing with it.”
Rachel in Plymouth was straightforwardly optimistic: “It’ll be a success. Everyone’s talking about it, so that’s progress.”
What of their own green efforts? Have Allegra Stratton’s appeals been cutting through? There the picture is much more mixed. Answers ranged from nothing and “I don’t know how” to electric cars, recycling, solar panels and giving up aerosols.
All agreed that the public needed to do more – and the panel’s mind wasn’t entirely closed to tax rises – but nor were they sure that heat pumps or insulation would be affordable for everyone.
Advertisement
Boris Johnson’s downward management of expectations has cut through, meanwhile, with several members of the panel mentioning yesterday’s warning that the world was at “one minute to midnight” in the fight against climate change. Yet most members of the panel expect a successful summit.
Asked to summarise the likeliest outcome in a headline, Glen in Derby said: “Climate summit a success.” Ian in Plymouth said: “So near and yet so far.” Neil in Oldham said: “Something like: ‘World will go carbon neutral by this date’.” Chloe in Oldham said: “The world goes green.”
And the message to the PM? “Act faster on important issues and brush your hair.”
Listen to the focus group in full on Times Radio with Matt Chorley from 11am, or catch up later on the Red Box podcast
2. Barking up the wrong magic money tree
The other big topic of discussion this month was the budget – which, just in case you’ve forgotten, happened all of six days ago. Here Rishi Sunak’s target voters are a little less effusive than he might like.
Advertisement
The panel’s prevailing view was not a million miles away from that of traditionalist Tory MPs: unease over where the cash is coming from.
As Glen in Derby put it: “It’s unconservative... lots of spending... it’s what Boris wants... we’re broke, but Boris wants to spend and be positive.” Ian in Plymouth said: “It’s a populist budget... giving away money we haven’t got from the magic money tree...”
But others wanted Sunak to go further and raise the minimum wage again. Chloe in Oldham confessed to conflicting views: “The right amount of money in the right places... it’s good giving money to the NHS, but I’m gonna be poorer.”
Not everyone has noticed the ideological rebirth of the Conservative Party, by the way. Canvassed for their views on what the Tories stood for on the economy, the most common answer from the panel was “I don’t know” or “it’s all for popularity”.
Yet those who did have an opinion believed Sunak’s budget was “more like a Labour one” – and none could recall what, if anything, Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves had said about it.
Advertisement
3. War is over?
Yesterday ministers made clear that they would not allow the Channel fishing row to overshadow Cop – not that they’d have much choice in the matter – and last night President Macron obliged.
Less than four hours before Paris was to impose new sanctions and disruptive checks on British lorries and boats, the French president said he would instead await further talks. No 10 think it has a lot to do with their threat to sue the EU.
A source close to Macron said: “We have received the first signs that the British authorities will step up talks: an answer to the latest proposals from the French authorities is expected by tomorrow.”
Clément Beaune, the Europe minister, has held talks with Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, and the two would meet in Paris on Thursday – with sanctions postponed until then.
George Eustice, the environment secretary, told Times Radio this morning that the talks had been “constructive”. He added: “Our position is – and it always has been – that we will license any vessel that’s entitled to be licensed”.
Advertisement
4. House of ill repute
More on the will-they-won’t-they row over Tory veteran Owen Paterson’s 30-day suspension from the Commons for lobbying on behalf of firms for whom he was a paid consultant, which MPs will vote on tomorrow.
With Paterson’s Conservative allies ready to amend or vote down the sanction – and No 10 maintaining an ominous silence on how they will whip Tory MPs to vote – Sir Lindsay Hoyle has let his views be known to waverers.
The Speaker is understood to have told friends that the Commons risks an expenses-style scandal if Paterson’s sanction is not approved. “Lindsay is concerned that voting this down would do the House real reputational damage,” a source said.
It puts him at odds – not for the first time – with his predecessor, John Bercow, who has written to Paterson to denounce the investigation into his conduct by parliament’s standards committee as “wrong and indefensible” and “Kafkaesque”.
By the way: in 2018 MPs on the standards committee blocked an inquiry into allegations of bullying by Bercow, which he denies. The system has since been opened to all historical complaints against present and former MPs.
The Times view on the Owen Paterson case: Office Politics
5. What a Kerry on
Road closures: one of life’s great levellers.
Times Radio’s Luke Jones captured this enjoyable vignette in Glasgow yesterday. That unassuming figure waiting patiently behind the barrier on a Glasgow pavement is none other than former US presidential candidate and secretary of state John Kerry, now Joe Biden’s special envoy on climate.
“It’s John Kerry, let him through!” was the cry to a copper from a Glaswegian passer-by. “I’ll ask,” came the reply. For all we know he could still be there.
Patrick Maguire’s analysis first appeared in the Red Box morning emailhttps://www.thetimes.com/article/newsletter-signup-redbox-925pqzzpj