A new planning formula backed by the housing secretary would result in more development in the north of England and the Midlands and fewer new homes in Tory shire constituencies.
Michael Gove has welcomed a proposed planning algorithm that would set targets for hundreds of thousands of new homes in areas that the government has identified as being most in need of “levelling up”.
The formula, devised by Chris Walker, a former Treasury economist, calculates housing targets for local areas using expected jobs growth over the next 20 years in line with the government’s levelling up policies.
Under the existing planning formula, which calculates housing need based on historic population growth, Walker’s research found there will be an annual shortfall of up to 67,000 homes in cities including Birmingham, Manchester, Bradford and Liverpool.
Adopting the new formula would ensure delivery met future demand and reduced pressure on areas that are “economically developed” including the home counties, the analysis found.
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The research is published today in a report by the Building Back Britain Commission, an independent group of senior housing industry figures including David Thomas, chief executive of Barratt Developments and Nigel Wilson, chief executive of Legal & General.
The commission argued that the government’s current strategy “simply does not fit the levelling up agenda”.
At a drinks reception held last week to mark the launch of the report, Gove told guests: “In the past when we’ve been looking at housing need, we’ve tended to reinforce housing numbers in those areas where there’s already been housing growth. If we want to change the geography of this country, the economic geography certainly, and the opportunities that people enjoy, then we need to look ahead at where we want to go as a country.”
Tory backbenchers rebelled against a controversial planning formula proposed last year that would have resulted in much of the new housing concentrated in Conservative local authority areas in the suburbs and shires. The formula was designed to prioritise new housing in the least affordable places.
Bob Seely, MP for the Isle of Wight, who led the rebellion, said: “We need housing . . . in growth areas. We also need to understand the sensitivities of the communities we represent.”
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A spokesman for the department for levelling up, housing and communities said: “We are committed to building more homes across the country and supporting young people and families on to the housing ladder.
“The new secretary of state is reviewing departmental programmes and will come forward with proposals in due course.”
