Neil MacKinnon was polishing up a report on economic output when an unexpected visitor swept into the office and asked to see his numbers.
The flustered young Treasury economist looked around the room for help but none of his bosses was available. In any case, he could hardly have refused the prime minister. MacKinnon handed over his draft copy, which Margaret Thatcher neatly folded and popped into her handbag. She then strode out to a car that sped her to the House of Commons.
A few minutes later, dossier no longer in hand, Thatcher (obituary April 8, 2013) rose from the front bench and gave an imperious speech in which she accurately cited his statistics from memory. While impressed by her powers of recall, McKinnon felt more than a little anxious that no senior member of his unit had checked his work before it was quoted in parliament by the Conservative leader.
“Not to worry,” one of his colleagues reassured him. “If you’ve cocked it up you’ll be sent to the Northern Ireland Office.” There was no blunder and MacKinnon remained in London, going on to hold senior roles at leading City financial companies and becoming a sought-after media commentator on financial matters.
MacKinnon was especially visible when the UK held a referendum on whether to leave the European Union. He was a founding member of the Economists for Brexit lobbying group. The small but vocal coalition broke ranks with economic orthodoxy by claiming that Brexit would boost the UK economy and lead to an eventual fall in prices for consumers. They rebranded as Economists for Free Trade after the 2016 result and argued that “no deal is the best deal”.
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Some observers wondered whether condensation had crept into their crystal ball. A survey of more than 600 economists shortly before the vote found that nine out of ten believed that Brexit would harm the economy. Since most analysis predicted that Brexit would leave the UK worse off, and warnings that leaving the EU would be economic folly were at the heart of Remain’s “project fear” message, their contrarian stance garnered significant attention and influence among Leave proponents.
His support for Brexit was of a piece with MacKinnon’s heterodox streak. Despite his Treasury stint during a Conservative administration from 1982 to 1986 he was a vocal Labour supporter, a son of Liverpool who in the Nineties received a cherished letter of thanks from the then leader of the opposition, John Smith, for whom he acted as an economics adviser.
While no admirer of Thatcherism, MacKinnon said that as part of the prime minister’s economic briefing team he respected her direct style and drive for high standards, though when working with the Labour government he later found Gordon Brown to be rather more affable.
He had nurtured relationships with Labour leaders from a young age. In 1966, aged ten, he wrote to Harold Wilson to inform the prime minister that he had recently enjoyed a splendid holiday. He received a reply from a Downing Street clerk: “The prime minister has asked me to thank you for your letter. He was glad to know that you had a good holiday on 31st March.”
In the Nineties MacKinnon supported Business for Sterling, a campaign against Britain adopting the euro. His deep scepticism of European monetary union, which he saw as disastrous, especially after the eurozone debt crisis erupted in 2009, informed his pro-Brexit advocacy.
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MacKinnon had nuanced views on one of the key issues that animated the Leave campaign, arguing that the UK could better satisfy its needs and help lower-paid workers with a more selective immigration process that did not by default favour EU citizens above those outside the bloc.
“I don’t think immigration has been bad for Britain. It can be a good thing. It can add to productivity or economic growth,” he told The Sunday Times before the referendum.
He also cited a Bank of England study suggesting that mass immigration depressed the pay of unskilled workers. “The negative effects come through at the lower end of the scale. That’s why you get this social resentment.”
Neil John MacKinnon was born in 1955 to Joan (née Stringer) and James, a ship’s captain who served in the Merchant Navy on Arctic convoys during the Second World War, and later helped to run ferries between Liverpool and Northern Ireland. Marriages to Paula Wheatley and Monica Dowding, with whom he wrote a book on sterling, ended in divorce. Two sons from his first marriage survive him — James, a lawyer and investment manager, and Calum, a writer — and one from his second, Charlie, a sports journalist.
After taking a first in economics at the University of Liverpool, studying under the economist Patrick Minford, he did a master’s degree in economics and econometrics at Southampton University. He had a spell at a hedge fund and held a variety of high-level positions at City firms, including chief currency strategist for Citibank, Merrill Lynch and the ECU Group. At the time of his death he was global macro strategist for VTB Capital, a Russian investment bank.
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He played golf, kick-boxed and made trips to Glasgow to watch Rangers play. He underlined his status as a City heavyweight by taking up white-collar boxing, which surged in popularity after the release of Fight Club, the 1999 film starring Brad Pitt. MacKinnon scored a points victory over an opponent nicknamed “Psycho” in front of 900 spectators in 2002 at a charity fight night at a central London hotel.
He told The Economist that he trained at a rough-and-ready boxing gym in the East End with a gritty atmosphere that reminded him of his childhood days as a fan of the sweet science on Merseyside. “It’s a proper boxing gym,” he said, lamenting the owners’ unwise decision to attempt a large financial withdrawal. “It’s just a shame the two lads who run the gym are in jail for bank robbery.
Neil MacKinnon, economist, was born on May 17, 1955. He died after contracting a chest infection while recovering from heart surgery on September 26, 2021, aged 66