So this is the story of this election: Ruth accuses Nicola of being “obsessed” with the constitution, Nicola accuses Ruth of having nothing to say about anything except the constitution, and Kezia accuses Nicola and Ruth of ignoring everything except the national question. At some point, they all agree, people will have to stop banging on about independence. But you go first. I’ll stop obsessing about it when you cease obsessing about it. This is not MAD, but it is MAC: Mutually Assured Constitutionalism.
“We are going to win this election, you know,” senior nationalists say with just a hint of exasperation. They have a point: it is only by comparison with the historic highs of 2015 that the SNP’s likely result on Thursday begins to look a little underwhelming. Even so, Alex Salmond’s allies are privately scathing about the campaign the SNP has run in this election: no ideas, no clear purpose, no coherent sense of strategy, no grip, they say. Nicola Sturgeon’s position remains unassailable but, for the first time since she succeeded Mr Salmond, doubts are being expressed about the SNP’s leadership.
Not all of this is fair, even if it does reflect a nagging sense that the SNP have lost control of this election’s ballyhooed narrative. It is true that the SNP has had nothing new to say but what else, realistically, could they have done? The party exists to press the case for independence; demanding that they forswear that asks the SNP to deny themselves. You might as well complain that a scorpion stings. Ms Sturgeon’s decision to demand a second referendum may solidify Unionist opposition, but failing to do so would leave her seeming purposeless.
Which is why, even if you have tired of the whole damn discussion, you should understand that the parties are not acting irrationally when they focus on the constitutional question. On the contrary, they are paying attention to the electorate. Because if one thing is true about this campaign — and indeed, about modern Scotland more generally — it is that almost any political conversation soon turns to the question of independence. It is the only issue that truly moves people; the only subject upon which everyone has an opinion. And I mean everyone; a poll published last week reported that only 3 per cent of likely voters can’t decide whether they support independence or not.
Election campaigns, political scientists like to say, rarely change very much. Rather, they are means by which underlying “fundamentals” are given voice and, in the process, confirmed. There just isn’t enough time for even a poor campaign to have much of an impact.
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This is true as far as it goes, but it doesn’t go quite far enough. When races are close, even minor disturbances in the force can have a dramatic impact — 1 per cent here and 1 per cent there and pretty soon you’re talking about something significant. Separating the significant from the ephemeral, however, is no easy task.
In this Scottish election, all the sound and fury cannot disguise the manner in which the fundamental, hard, underlying truth about Scottish politics has hardly changed. The SNP has lost support and the Tories have gained votes but on the biggest question of all — independence — opinion has barely shifted.
Strip away the campaign noise, then, and the signal remains much as it ever was: this is a country deeply, even irretrievably, divided on the national question. Some voters have made a journey from No to Yes but they’re matched by those who have travelled in the opposite direction. The result is equilibrium. Scotland stands much where she did in 2014 and the independence question remains unfinished business.
So, with the proviso that no one really knows anything, some predictions to make me look especially foolish on Friday morning. The Tory revival will be real, but less than they had hoped for, resulting in seven seats. Angus Robertson will hold on in Moray, but only after a recount. Likewise, John Nicolson will hold East Dunbartonshire but the Lib Dems will pick up a seat in Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross as well as winning in Edinburgh West. Labour’s vote will increase sharply in Glasgow but not by nearly enough to win any seats there. Ian Murray will remain their only MP, though Labour will come close in East Lothian. The SNP vote will fall to 43 per cent but the party will win 48 of Scotland’s 59 constituencies.
And when the counting is done, we will appreciate that we are much where we were before the campaign began. This is not an election to decide a new Scotland. Voters are not hugely enthused by either Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn and nor, increasingly, are they convinced by Nicola Sturgeon. Nonetheless, they will do their duty and vote along the country’s newly traditional constitutional lines.
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Because, in the end, that’s what matters. The national question is the only one that truly, madly, deeply, counts. Neither nationalists nor unionists can “move on” from or “get over” this because, taken as a whole, the electorate have neither moved on from nor got over the independence question. Don’t blame the politicians for this; blame your neighbours. The swines.