Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori will meet for the 11th time tomorrow for a place in the French Open semi-final, with the world No 1 having only lost twice to the Japanese in their previous ten meetings.
Whether Nishikori can make it three from 11 will depend on how he uses the weapons at his disposal, but the No 8 seed knows only too well that Murray, the top seed, has plenty of his own. So where will the match be won and lost?
Serve and return - an even contest?
Nishikori can be encouraged by his superior service record on clay compared to Murray - the Japanese has won 81 per cent of games on that surface in his career compared to the Scot’s 77 - but should be wary of Murray’s ability as one of the finest returners in tennis. The British No 1 has won 33 per cent of games on clay when receiving serve, a record only bettered by Rafael Nadal (42 per cent) and Novak Djokovic (35 per cent). And that compares favourably with Murray’s returning stats on the other two surfaces - when facing serve he actually wins fewest points on grass. There will be plenty of pressure on the Murray serve, though, as Nishikori has broken serve in 31 per cent of games where he is receiving on clay - the fourth best record among current players.
Nishikori’s backhand may work against him
The duo do not share many characteristics when it comes to their style but they are both consistent with their groundstrokes and serves. Murray is arguably the most consistent in the world (apart from during his recent run of poor form) and at his best there are few better once a rally develops. In contrast to Murray’s defensive game, Nishikori’s aggressive style can be dangerous when combined with his consistency.
Nishikori’s flat backhand may not do him many favours on clay, however, as flat groundstrokes do not work well on the surface. His western forehand grip will work well on clay as it generates heavy topspin; but this grip makes low balls difficult to get back into play.
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What about playing at the net?
Both comfortable at the net, the pair’s “net points won” percentages have been excellent thus far in the French Open.
Of the 15 net points Nishikori played in his fourth-round match against Fernando Verdasco, he managed to win 11 of them (73 per cent). Murray is not far off, having won 12 of the 17 (71 per cent) net points he played in his previous match against Karen Khachanov. Despite the slightly lower percentage, Murray is a very comfortable net player and has proved to be more capable at the net than Nishikori in the past.