The Moriarty tribunal has written to the main parties involved in the issuing of the second mobile-phone licence in 1996, indicating that it will not be significantly changing the provisional findings it issued in late 2008.
If that proves to be the case, it will be a huge setback for Denis O'Brien, the billionaire who won the licence, and Michael Lowry, the former minister for communications whose department issued it.
The inquiry was under pressure from O'Brien and civil servants in the former Department of Communications to revise its preliminary finding that the licence process was "illegal". It now appears that Judge Moriarty may not have changed his view, despite hearing new evidence last year.
The most significant new witness was Richard Nesbitt, a lawyer who acted for the department. Nesbitt, who is also chairman of Arnotts and a senior counsel, was told in public hearings that his evidence was "not credible" by a tribunal lawyer.
O'Brien and Lowry issued statements last year saying that a legal opinion given by Nesbitt in 1996 would dispel allegations that the former Fine Gael minister used his influence to have the licence awarded to Esat Digifone.
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The cabinet only agreed to waive legal privilege on the Nesbitt opinion last March after civil servants were criticised in the preliminary findings issued in 2008. Last July, Nesbitt reluctantly gave testimony about his legal advice.
Officials had asked for a legal opinion as to whether a change in the ownership of the Esat consortium should prevent it being awarded the licence in 1996. International Investment & Underwriting, a company owned by the businessman Dermot Desmond, acquired a stake in Esat after it was given preferred-bidder status in 1995. Nesbitt's opinion was that Lowry should "not drag his feet in issuing the licence" to Esat.
The tribunal had already stated it believed Nesbitt's opinion, prepared after a request from the attorney-general's office, did not address the material question of ownership.
When he gave evidence last year, Nesbitt stated that he had a "crystal clear" recollection of giving further oral advice on the ownership issue at two meetings with officials. In response, John Coughlan, the counsel for the tribunal, asked Nesbitt whether he expected the tribunal to believe his evidence was "credible" considering nobody else remembered these meetings.
Nesbitt replied: "I haven't got into the witness box for the purpose of saying something that's not true."
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It is understood Judge Moriarty wrote to interested parties late last week. According to one department source: "It's gone from bad to worse for us. People are beside themselves with rage over this."
The parties have until early next month if they want to issue a response to the tribunal, which is expected to issue its final report before the end of February.
The preliminary findings in 2008 stated that civil servants were "in thrall" to Lowry and allowed him to interfere with the licence competition to ensure that Esat won. Last week, the independent TD criticised the tribunal for refusing to recall him to give evidence before its report is issued.
Leader, page 12