More tales from the front line

Andrew Smith, head of research, Primelocation.com

The prime London sales market now looks set for a surge in supply this autumn, as many accidental landlords, faced with falling rents and encouraged by reports that prime London property prices have begun a tentative recovery, consider selling up. Popular pockets, particularly in the South West, such as Wimbledon and Barnes, continue to prove robust and this trend is now filtering out to the wider London market. The demand being reported by agents looks sufficient to provide stability for the rest of 2009. Prices in the prime country market have been falling steadily since the beginning of the year, driven by the South West, which has seen average prices fall 10.64 per cent annually. However, it is the South West which is now showing the first signs of a tentative recovery.

Roger Russ, operations director, Tyser Greenwood Surveyors

Demand is strong, particularly for high-value properties and for houses in popular retirement areas. For example, Cornwall and Devon are very busy. Lenders are applying low loan-to-value ratios to many products, based on what was a falling market and they need to adjust more quickly to the stabilising market. Many purchasers have 10 per cent deposits or more but are struggling to find finance. Do the lenders really see prices dropping by 10 per cent or more in the next few years? If they do, that would seem to go against all the present indicators.

Nigel Quinton, chief executive, Mansfield Building Society

We are cautiously optimistic about the property market with increasing evidence of first-time buyers returning to the market. However, it is too early to say we are completely out of the woods, with increasing unemployment and expected cuts in public spending continuing to test everyone’s resolve.

John Young, country department director, Chesterton Humberts

People are doing a fair bit of chin scratching: do we sell now or wait till next year? Unless more property comes on, prices will go up more noticeably. Some of our country house clients think next year will see a glut of top-end property and so are selling now.

Alasdair Gibson, Winkworth, Tunbridge Wells, Kent

We might see a good number of sales in the autumn, but this could cool off again in the winter. Interest rates will undoubtedly rise next year and this may force some people to sell. More stock will come to the market and prices could potentially deflate; much will depend on the lenders — I certainly don’t foresee any sustainable growth next year.

Robert Pritchard, Smiths Gore, the Cotswolds

The market for country homes worth more than £2 million has attracted robust sales over the past quarter, with guide prices being exceeded. The Cotswold region is aligned to the central London market, where agents have reported strong recovery in recent months and city investors have reappeared. The Stow-on-the-Wold office of Smiths Gore has has witnessed a strong increase in registration from both London and the South East over the past few months.

Gill Batchelor, Chesterton Humberts, Sevenoaks, Kent

The market in Sevenoaks remains buoyant. Market fluctuations have resulted in buyers keenly aware of value and properties that offer this, either by presentation and condition or intrinsic value. Well-presented properties attract immediate interest, with some examples achieving over the guide price.

Matthew Harvey, Chesterton Humberts, the Cotswolds

We have seen a far more buoyant market over the summer but the market is a very mixed picture. The bulk of our business is being fuelled from the higher end of the market by those looking to downsize, but remain in the area. The middle sector of the market is significantly quieter with very little ‘churn’ as the jobs market remains difficult and fewer people are relocating for new positions. The first-time buyer market remains subdued.

Patrick McCutcheon, head of residential, Dacre Son & Hartley, Yorkshire

The past three months have been a much better period than the same time last year when buyers faced financially meltdown and transactions just fell away. We have seen continuous growth since January, with a 26.3 per cent higher volume of sales agreed for June, July and August this year compared to last. We believe that this fragile recovery will continue over the next three months providing vendors are realistic with pricing. It’s been reported that Yorkshire has seen a 20 per cent decrease in house prices but in reality it’s been as little as a 2-3 per cent drop for properties in certain locations. The top end of the market in Yorkshire has done very well recently, with the £1 million plus properties being especially strong.

Rupert Wyatt, Barton Wyatt, Surrey

I expect the market to return with some gusto in September. We’ve already seen a number of foreign purchasers coming to invest in the Surrey market, largely because of the devaluation of the pound and the fall in property prices, the combination of which makes UK property look cheap. As always we have a steady flow of young families migrating from London for the better quality of life. There’s no question we’re over the worst.

Nic Mills, director, County Homesearch, the Cotswolds

An acute shortage of stock of the Cotswolds’ most sought-after properties has begun to stir up competition once more, particularly among cash-rich buyers. However, the prices of standard properties have already dropped some 16 per cent from their peak and may have further to fall in the coming months as a result of weaker demand caused by continued economic uncertainty.

David le Neve Foster, director, County Homesearch, Buckinghamshire

Since the beginning of the year, a surge of interested buyers have returned to the Buckinghamshire property market. Now perceived as better value for money, having seen significant price reductions over the past 12 months, prime properties in countryside locations across the Chilterns are particularly in demand, although shortage of quality stock is making genuine bargains difficult to find. However, we are expecting prices to fall back again by 2 per cent to 3 per cent towards the end of the year before starting a gradual but slow recovery in 2010.

Becky Munday, Wooster & Stock, Camberwell, London

Many buyers with large deposits are coming out of their tenancy agreements and are keen to secure their own property. We have also noticed an increased demand for larger family houses, worth more than £450,000, with many houses going under offer within days. The busy sales market will continue through to late November, when the natural seasonal lull kicks in.

James Gilbert-Green, Henry & James, Chelsea and Belgravia, London

As ever, properties on garden squares, lateral flats, first-floor flats and excellent refurbishments are continuing to sell. Sought-after properties are now achieving prices similar to — or greater than — the peak of the market in 2007.

Mohamed Nurmohamed, Chesterton Humberts, Mayfair, Knightsbridge and Belgravia, London

The prime London property market is showing a rebound in activity not seen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers last autumn. During the past year, prices had softened between 5 and 10 per cent. Investors are now viewing prime property as a natural hedge against inflation, which many financial commentators believe is inevitable due to the quantitative easing policies being introduced. International buyers have also returned to the super-prime property locations, as sterling has rebounded against the dollar.

Ian Dickson, Winkworth, Hammersmith and Shepherds Bush, London

The underlying problem is now lack of stock, although this has picked up ever so slightly in the past few weeks. The lower end of the market, namely first-time buyer properties, is struggling more than the second-time buyer market. Prices here have already risen at least 10 per cent from the bottom of the market, but are still well below peak levels.

Nigel Field, Winkworth, Kennington, London

Sales and lettings have increased month on month since February. In the next few months there will be a slight slowdown due to seasonal factors. In spring we were predominantly selling houses, however in the summer we have seen a sharp increase in the sale of flats, especially to first-time buyers. We are also seeing an increase in applicants looking to purchase for investment. Prices will stay constant and potentially increase over the next few months due to lack of supply. If the bank base rate starts to increase, and that trend continues throughout next year, we could see an increase in stock levels to the market, which in turn will affect prices.

Tom Dogger, Winkworth, Knightsbridge and Chelsea, London

The market is extremely busy with decreasing stock levels and increasing demand. This is primarily being driven by overseas interest. The autumn market could place further strain on availability of stock, due to interest from family buyers who traditionally come back to the market in early September after the summer break. We expect to see price growth over the next few months. Whilst we are experiencing a resurgence in activity, this is primarily for prime properties. Problematic houses or flats on short leases, with a walk up, on a busy road, in poor condition or in the basement are not selling.

Howard Elston, associate director, Aylesford International, London

The market is still difficult to read. The lower to mid-range, priced £1 million to £4 million, is still performing fairly well but the upper end is sporadic. There are some exceptional deals going through but they are not the norm. The very top end is still suffering from buyers losing fortunes on privately owned or publicly listed stock values. I always felt that once the stock market moved back to the 5,000 point level we would see some real revival. We are moving in that direction, but my opinion is that this autumn will be too early. It will be next spring before we see any real improvement.

Martin Bikhit, managing director, Kay & Co, London

The market in W1 and W2 remains buoyant and for certain properties we are achieving the equivalent prices to what we would have achieved at the peak of 2007. With interest rates ridiculously low many people are moving large cash deposits into property to obtain a better return on their money. The perception of many people is that the market is still difficult but that simply isn’t the case. Ideally some of the rental stock that has sat on the market unlet needs to come onto the sales market to give a much needed supply injection. Supply would have to increase by at least five times for there to be any impact on prices.

Natalie Hall, Currell Residential, Clerkenwell, London

We have seen a rapid improvement in the market since Easter, with sales rates improving significantly. We expect there to be a good level of demand and we expect that prices will maintain their current levels. It is too early to say whether City bonuses, or the supposed return of, are actually having an effect on the market. The recent flurry of activity is mainly down to overseas buyers.

Penelope Court, director, Beauchamp Estates, London

Belgravia, Knightsbridge, Mayfair, Chelsea and South Kensington seem to be a law unto themselves, defying market conditions that are often prevalent in other parts of the country. Both the number of sales, the level of applicants and price per square foot has increased noticeably in the past few months. Interestingly a fairly large proportion of these buyers are English but most countries around the globe are represented. What they all seem to be looking for is a safe, medium-term investment. Freehold houses and flats in prime locations and in prime blocks are particularly popular with the market between £1 million and £10 million pounds being the most popular.

Peter Rollings, Marsh and Partners, Central London

It’s not such a surprise that prices seem to have rebounded so quickly in London. In the last major recession from 1989-93, property prices dwindled by 20-25 per cent over a four-year period; this time they fell in many cases by 30 per cent in an 18 month period. Even in what is a traditionally quiet month of August, more than 900 new buyers registered with us. The majority are in the lower to middle market, between £250,000 and £750,000 and they appear to be ready to buy with sizeable deposits. With a finite supply of property and a seemingly limitless stream of demand from both overseas and UK buyers, we see the present recovery in prices in London being not only sustainable but unstoppable.

Camilla Dell, managing partner, Black Brick Property Solutions

We have seen evidence of investment landlords who have large portfolios being able to rent their properties out but not sell them due to low interest rates. When rates go back up, this could all change, especially as rents have fallen significantly. But we have noticed a significant number of investment buyers this year, mainly looking to buy in prime areas of London in the £500,000 to £2 million range. The demand has mainly come from international buyers: Middle Eastern, Asian, African and European, all looking to take advantage of the weakness in sterling and drop in the market. More recently, we have also noticed a return in the number of buyers looking to buy at the top end of the market; £10 million plus.

Tim Macpherson, head of London Residential Sales, Carter Jonas

The market seems to have picked up dramatically over the summer. We are anticipating a busy autumn, as buyers compete for the small pool of really good-quality properties for sale, and this is contributing toward driving prices slightly upwards. However, while the market has the appearance of being stabilised, things are far from certain. If interest rates were to rise soon, then things could change dramatically.

Tom Hudson, buying agent, Middleton Advisors, London

August has been a particularly busy month in the country house market. Unusually, it has been our busiest month this year, whereas traditionally it is one of the quietest. What is driving the market at the moment? City workers are receiving salary increases instead of controversial bonuses, and are therefore being able to secure financing.

Catherine Cockcroft, head of rentals, Aylesford International, London

Applicants are still negotiating on rents, but in a few cases recently the landlord has been able to keep the rent at the same or increase it due to two or more tenants negotiating on a property. Some tenants have pooled their resources and take a two-bedroom property rather than a one-bedroom property each. This has resulted in there being more one-bedroom properties available. The rent has not significantly increased for two-bedroom properties, but the prices have adjusted for one-beds.

Caroline Kavanagh, lettings director, Townends and Regents estate agents, London and surrounds

We’re seeing many tenants wanting to view more properties before committing themselves, and they’re being extremely price sensitive. However, prime properties that are well-presented and that are in good locations remain extremely desirable. Realistic pricing, in line with other available stock, is critical.