I had better make clear where I stand, right at the beginning. I have friends who have supported Manchester City all their lives and are uncomfortable about the money. And I know others who can’t believe their luck. If I were a City fan, I would be in the latter group.
It isn’t true that you can buy the title. There are too many other clubs at the top of the graph.
But it is true that there is a strong statistical relationship between the size of a club’s wage bill and the points they secure. And if I were a supporter, I know which end of the graph I would like City to be.
With all that money, how are they doing? Dr Henry Stott, Dr Ian Graham and Chen Jin have been taking a look. Immediately after the cash injection, the Fink Tank estimated that it would take at least two seasons for City to make their way into the big time. And so it has proven.
At long last they have tiptoed past Tottenham Hotspur (in other words, we would make City very narrow favourites to win if the teams met on a neutral ground). But they are still quite a long way behind Chelsea, rating only 53 per cent as good.
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They reap the rewards of this improvement, having a 76 per cent chance of finishing in the top four and a 13 per cent chance of being in the top three.
The transfer market in the summer will be particularly fascinating because Liverpool have begun to recover and should challenge heavily for a top-four finish next season.
As one might expect, City’s defence is marginally (but only marginally) better than their attack.
This is not, however, the result of defensive tactics. It is because they have reduced the conversion rate that turns opposition shots on the City net into goals. And this, in turn, is because Joe Hart is a very good goalkeeper.
This assertion can be made because of the Fink Tank Castrol rankings, the best available computerised ranking system and used by Fifa during last summer’s World Cup.
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It measures the contribution made by players with every touch of the ball. And Hart tops the City list, followed by Carlos Tévez. Kolo Touré comes next, then David Silva.
This allows the Fink Tank to plot City’s recent purchases, looking at the players’ contribution on the pitch against the price they cost (see graphic above). It seems as though Mario Balotelli’s behaviour is not the only problem with him.