Rarely has the prospect of people going to the polls generated as little enthusiasm as the forthcoming assembly election in Northern Ireland. With good reason. The election, coming just eight months after voters last cast their ballots, provides stark and depressing evidence that politics in the North is not working.
Unwanted as this election may be, it has the potential to be hugely important and forever change the way politics operates north of the border.
Unless there is a dramatic change, the DUP and Sinn Fein seem to be incapable of working together. Most of the blame must fall upon the DUP and, in particular, its leader Arlene Foster. There has been a notable absence of humility on the part of the leading unionist party in recent times and an absence of generosity towards its partner in the executive.
That said, Sinn Fein has not been the easiest bedfellow either. While Martin McGuinness’s efforts to build bridges with the DUP cannot be questioned, this has not always been replicated by his colleagues.
Trust is a huge issue in any form of power sharing and that simply does not exist between Sinn Fein and the DUP. It is ironic, and not a little unfortunate, that the two big winners of the peace since the Good Friday Agreement have taken the most hardline positions on either side of the divide.
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The more moderate SDLP and Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), for so long the main nationalist and unionist parties, have been eclipsed by their more uncompromising rivals, who often struggled to gain electoral traction during the Troubles.
Recent experience would suggest that, if power sharing is to have a future, the centre must hold and strengthen. The SDLP and the UUP offer the best hope of the North becoming a politically stable entity.
That is why this election is so important. If the DUP largely retains its vote, despite its cavalier attitude to power-sharing and its appalling handling of the “cash-for-ash” controversy, then it can only be interpreted as an endorsement of its poor behaviour.
There is also a strong argument that if Sinn Fein returns with a similar or strengthened mandate it will be taken as a signal from nationalist voters that the party is right to take a tougher approach with the DUP.
If both scenarios come to pass it will surely be a recipe for stalemate — an irresistible force meeting an immovable object, leading to further entrenchment and, potentially, a prolonged return to direct rule from London.
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It would be unrealistic to imagine that the “big two” will come even close to being usurped in this election. It would be naive to underestimate their strength relative to the UUP and the SDLP, and indeed the reasons for that. However, if both the main parties were to lose seats it would give them pause for thought — a message from the electorate that it wants something different than the age-old slugfest. It might be enough to shift the main players from their dogmatic and inflexible positions.
For that reason, those who are interested in progress in the North should hope that the centre ground makes advances in this election.
The choice for voters is clear. They can have more of the same, which seems unlikely to break the current impasse. Or they can try something and somebody different. It is hard to argue that the latter option can be any worse than what we have at the present. It might even be a good deal better.
As we approach the 19th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement it is important to acknowledge that huge progress has been made. However, it is certainly time to take the next step forward. The UK and Irish governments will continue to have a role to play, and they both need to raise their game, but it is now down to the parties themselves to make the Stormont executive and the assembly work.
The election that nobody wanted has the potential to be the catalyst for that to happen.