THE biggest debates of this parliament will occur in Whitehall rather than at Westminster. Yesterday’s row over the ID cards Bill is, while important, a misleading pointer. It is part of the legislation left over from before the election.
Most of the new agenda is yet to be agreed in detail, despite last year’s five-year plans for the main public services and the long list of pledges in the Labour manifesto. Talking to senior ministers and advisers around Whitehall over the past week leaves a curious impression of limbo, or anti-climax, after all the energies of the spring.
Tony Blair and a small group of other ministers are very busy with international affairs, Europe, the start of the EU presidency and the G8 summit next week. But, domestically, there is a pause. Ministers are pacing themselves for the long 18-month session. Everyone says: “Wait for September.” That is when the real decisions will be taken.
A series of Green and White Papers will be issued before the legislative arguments get fully under way before Christmas and in the new year. A key factor will be what they can get through Parliament. There is a double calculation. The Government has not lost a vote in the Commons since 1997 and still wants to get Bills through without defeats of substance. So this involves assessing the scale of potential revolts and seeing what can be agreed. Ministers are, however, more reconciled to defeats in the Lords, many of which they can later reverse.
David Blunkett is a good example of a minister taking his time. He clearly relishes his return to office after four and a half months on the back benches. He believes that the Government has two good years to bring forward a radical programme. At present, he is floating ideas and consulting.
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The final report of the Adair Turner commission on pensions will come in November and Mr Blunkett is co-ordinating closely with him. His main aim is to ensure that everyone is fully aware of the options: over their savings and future income, and what the Government can and, above all, cannot do. He has already talked of people being required to opt out, rather than into, occupational schemes, and he will shortly be making a speech about inequalities in assets.
Mr Blunkett is cautious about the future of pension credits, which have helped to take 2.7 million out of poverty. They have been needed because of past weaknesses. He wants to encourage saving so that in 30 years people will not need credits.
On the rest of the welfare reform agenda, he is taking a second look at proposals for a single flat-rate level of housing benefit for each area, seeing how the £12.3 billion spent on that benefit is linked to other benefits so as not to discourage people from working. Mr Blunkett is more opaque on the reform of incapacity benefit, a very sensitive issue for Labour MPs. He wants a balance between incentives to work and helping people to avoid long-term illness and depression.
Mr Blunkett has been significantly affected, if not changed, by his resignation: less confrontational perhaps, though still keen to be around for several years, to make his mark, and to show that the Government has not run out of steam.