All political leaders say that they are for the middle classes because that is where most votes are. The middle classes now account for about three fifths of the electorate, and skilled and unskilled manual workers only two fifths — a reversal of the relative shares in the 1960s. So most of us are middle class now, or want to be, as John Prescott memorably admitted.
Appealing to the concerns of the middle classes was Tony Blair’s crucial political, and above all, electoral insight. New Labour would not have taken power in 1997 without winning more than a third of this expanded vote, and the party still held on to three tenths of it even in 2005. By contrast, the Tories, which had been used to winning more than half of the middle-class vote, gained less two fifths in 1997, and slightly less in 2005.
However, the latest Populus polls for The Times show that, over the past three months, new Labour, as Gordon Brown still described it in his Fabian Society lecture on Saturday, has taken barely a quarter of the middle-class vote, while the Tory share has risen back to more than two fifths.
The Liberal Democrat share has been volatile, rising from a fifth in 1997 to more than a quarter in 2005, but is back down to just over a fifth.
In political terms, the battle for the middle-class vote involves talking about aspiration, the mainstream middle, hard work, effort, opportunity and responsibility. It is not just about where people are now, but there they want to be. This has been easier territory for the Conservatives with a preference for lower taxes.
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In his Fabian speech Mr Brown sought to link the interests of the least well-off with the middle classes. This was partly under the banner of social mobility, and partly on the argument that middle-class families, not just the poorest, benefit from children centres, the Child Trust Fund and tax credits. He claimed that proposed Tory cuts in the trust fund and tax credits would hit not the wealthy few but the children of teachers, taxi drivers, technicians and shopkeepers. He talked of a threat to middle-class jobs and guarantees. The Tories respond by highlighting the squeeze on middle-class pensions and increases in taxes.
Of course, the term middle classes is stretched by both the Conservatives and Labour to cover most people whose votes they want, apart from those at the very top or bottom of the income band.
The latest row over Tory proposals to reintroduce tax relief for married couples highlights the complexities of this middle-class debate at a time of social change. The Tories argue that marriage should be recognised in the tax system, as in most other countries, since children do better with two parents together. Labour and the Liberal Democrats argue that it is unfair to discriminate financially against single parents.
The most recent Populus poll showed that only 40 per cent of voters believed that the Government should actively promote and encourage marriage, including the use of tax incentives. However, 57 per cent think that it is not the place of Government to promote one lifestyle over another. The middle classes are slightly more opposed to married tax relief than the average, with women and young people the most hostile. That is one reason why Ed Balls and Nick Clegg feel secure in attacking the Tory plan.
So while all politicians seek to be on the side of the middle class, it is far from a homogenous group, and has varying interests.