Theresa May has been forced to release an official economic analysis claiming that any Brexit outcome will damage the UK economy despite saying it would be “wrong” to publish a document that would undermine talks.
Downing Street is also struggling to explain why it disciplined a minister for saying the leaked figures may have to prompt a rethink while another frontbencher suffered no sanction for claiming civil servants’ forecasts were “always wrong”.
The prime minister has been severely embarrassed after extracts of an economic analysis on Brexit outcomes, prepared in No 10, were leaked to the Buzfeed website.
Initially government sources suggested that the modelling had been undertaken without ministerial approval with the blame falling on Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary.
Mrs May’s spokesman, however, today refused to say that civil servants had acted without authority, fuelling suspicions that she was behind moves to clear the way for a softer Brexit at a crucial set of cabinet meetings next week.
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Speaking to reporters on the plane to China the prime minister distanced herself from the modelling. “It would be wrong to describe this as ‘the Brexit impact assessment’. There is analysis being done. This is very preliminary.
“What has been seen so far is a selective interpretation of a very preliminary analysis, which ministers have not signed off, have not approved, and which doesn’t actually even look at the sort of deal that we want to deliver in terms of the future relationship with the European Union.”
“When the time comes for parliament to vote on the final deal, we will ensure that parliament has the appropriate analysis on which to be fully informed, on which to base their judgment,” she added.
“But it would be wrong to publish analysis before that analysis has been completed, and it would also be wrong to publish analysis which might prejudice our negotiating position, and indeed parliament itself has accepted that.”
The government abandoned its efforts to withhold the document from MPs just hours later, however.
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The climbdown came as the government faced possible defeat today over an opposition “humble address” motion calling for the documents to be released.
Downing Street also said Phillip Lee, the justice minister, had been called in by the chief whip after he tweeted that if the figures in the leaked assessment were “anywhere near right”, there should be a “serious question” about the government’s approach to Brexit.
Pressed on whether Mrs May was wrong to state the documents should not be released, a spokesman told a Westminster briefing: “No, because the analysis that is requested by this humble address is incomplete and that is what we have said.
“This was produced without ministerial sign-off and has been leaked, and therefore is incomplete.
“If the House decides it wants to see this analysis, even though it is provisional and has not gone through the proper processes then we will abide by the will of the House.”
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Downing Street said the PM had seen a first draft of the analysis last week.
A spokesman said: “It is right, and it is correct, for the civil service to prepare these sorts of analyses to help inform the government’s decision as the end state negotiations continue.”
No 10 made it clear that Steve Baker, a minister in the Brexit department, would not be reprimanded after telling MPs yesterday that official forecasts drawn up by civil servants were “always wrong”.
Asked why Mr Lee, who backed Remain, had been disciplined over his remarks but not the Brexit minister, a government spokesman said Mr Baker’s comments were made in a statement to the Commons, while Mr Lee had been “speculating” on leaked documents.
A government spokesman said of Mr Lee: “He has been spoken to by the chief whip and been reminded it is best to air views in private.
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“It is the fact that he aired it in public. That it was speculating about a leaked document in public.”
Downing Street said the partial analysis had not modelled Mrs May’s preferred outcome of a bespoke deal with the EU.
A cabinet source who had seen the full briefing told The Times that it was similar to the controversial Treasury modelling released ahead of the referendum in 2016 as part of so-called Project Fear.
Tensions within government have increased markedly since the botched reshuffle and ahead of cabinet discussions over future trade negotiations with the rest of the EU due to start in March.