Matt Cooper: with this do or die coalition, I thee wed

This is better surely than a union between parties with fundamental differences, as is the case with Fine Gael and Labour, that cling to the belief that "opposites attract" because it suits their purpose.

How would a coalition government comprising Fine Gael and Labour form a budget if given the opportunity? Compromise would be reached, of course, if only for the parties to remain in power. But would it give us the right combination of spending cuts and taxes to re-stimulate the economy? I doubt it.

And what about sorting out the mess at the banks? Fine Gael may have a different approach to Fianna Fail in dealing with the toxic loans given to property developers, but essentially its proposed solutions are not as far removed from the government's proposed National Asset Management Agency (Nama) as it would like to portray. It is not possible to reconcile either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael with Labour's desire for full nationalisation of the banks.

According to the latest opinion poll, Fianna Fail (17%) and Fine Gael (34%) have a combined majority of 51% once the "don't knows" have been adjusted. So these like-minded parties could form a coalition with a large majority of Dail seats and sufficient authority to govern, therefore providing the country with political stability.

Fine Gael and Labour (23%) could form a government with an even bigger majority but, even if the individuals in those parties are better disposed towards each other, the tensions over policy and strategy given their ideological differences would be enormous.

Both parties could be forced into dramatic compromises, as happens in most good marriages, but that might not lead to the optimum solutions. Considering the unprecedented situation that will be faced by any new government, splits would be certain to emerge. As the dependants, we are the ones who would suffer as the parties strive to keep their arrangement alive for the sake of power.

There's no denying that the bickering and fighting that would emanate from any coalition arrangement between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael would be far from civil, especially as the two parties jockey for position and tribal differences emerge. One serious impediment to such a union, however, is that such an arrangement, even on a temporary basis, would wreck too many careers among the officer classes.

Things may be desperate but they are not so serious that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael would consider coalescing in the national interest.

While the two parties continue to stress their historical differences, the reality is that few, if any, voters care about the early 20th-century civil war or the traditions from which Fianna Fail and Fine Gael were born. The biggest difference between the parties is Fianna Fail's willingness to do almost anything on the basis that the end always justifies the means. Fine Gael likes to believe it is above that sort of thing.

When it comes to the economy, however, both parties pretty much want to get to the same place. Both prefer lower tax regimes than Labour and have similar beliefs about the levels of public spending required to deliver public services. In truth, issues that do not relate to money are of relatively little interest these days, especially now that Northern Ireland is no longer a political consideration.

Essentially, both parties pitch their tents on the centre of the political landscape, with leading lights on both sides leaning either somewhat to the left or the right but never going too far in either direction. They will argue otherwise but there simply aren't that many differences between the two.

A general election is looking more likely in the next six months. The Green party knows that, the earlier the election, the more likely it is to lose all its seats. Fianna Fail knows it is only a question of time before it is forced to surrender the power it has held for all but 30 months since March 1987. Some people believe that, since defeat is inevitable, the government might as well do the right thing and throw caution to the wind between now and its demise but that's not going to happen.

Instead, Fianna Fail will do whatever it can to mitigate its future electoral losses. Every minister will be looking to keep his seat and every backbencher will be urging his bosses to do whatever is necessary to protect theirs.

While a €20 billion-plus deficit between income and expenditure means the December budget will be necessarily harsh, the government will still pull some of its punches.

The public's confidence in the government is shot to pieces (an approval rating of just 11% is truly astonishing) and, while it cannot be restored, Fianna Fail will not want to damage it any further.

The party's hunger for power has facilitated coalitions with Labour, the Progressive Democrats and the Greens, so why should it not consider a post-election deal with Fine Gael? The real obstacle to such an arrangement may be Enda Kenny. Not only does he have his best opportunity to become taoiseach and punish the ancient enemy but, if Fianna Fail is decimated, the party could even be pushed to the margins of political life, leaving Fine Gael as the dominant force in 21st-century Irish politics.

That may be wishful thinking. Those opinion poll results might not be repeated in a general election. The vagaries of proportional representation and the geographic strengths and weaknesses of various parties might throw up results that a national poll might not suggest.

What the poll does confirm is the continued erosion of the dominance once enjoyed by the country's two biggest parties. The days when they commanded more than 80% of the popular vote are long gone and will never return. The trend suggests that their combined vote could soon fall to less than 50%.

Maybe then a marriage of convenience between the alpha males of Irish politics could be arranged. Or maybe you think that's about as possible as a Fianna Fail-led government introducing a civil partnership bill.

matt.cooper@sunday-times.ie