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Matt Cooper: This is no time for soft touch politics

Our political parties must start dealing out strong medicine, but no one seems to be up to the challenge

Fine Gael's antics last week brought us no closer to the general election that the public craves. The main opposition party should have allowed the coalition partners to stew in the discomfort of their appalling local and European election results. Instead, Fine Gael's decision to put down a motion of no-confidence in the government on Tuesday forced Fianna Fail to rally around their leader and persuaded the beleaguered coalition partners to close ranks.

The Green party, facing annihilation if an election were to take place now, was never going to vote with the opposition on the motion. Fine Gael might have thought its tactic would put pressure on the Green TDs but, having seen all but three of their council seats disappear just a few days earlier, the party had taken as much pressure as it could bear.

It is just about possible to argue that Fine Gael was being particularly cunning in putting forward the confidence motion. By forcing the government parties to reaffirm their faith in each other it keeps the coalition solid, meaning it will remain in place to deliver another hair-shirt budget in December. By the time the six-month window on the next confidence motion closes, the public is likely to be in financial shock.

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At that stage, Fine Gael might have a better chance of shaking out the Greens and independents on whom Fianna Fail relies for support. A government collapse and a hugely unpopular budget could be just what Fine Gael believes it needs to sweep into power in a general election.

No matter how desperate things are for the country, and how difficult the task of holding the reins of power, every opposition politician thinks he can do a better job than the incumbent. While no sane person should want to deliver next December's budget, politicians are made of different stuff. It is not just a case of believing they can do better than their opponents; it is also the game of winning and keeping power.

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Despite all the rubbish being talked about green shoots appearing in the economy, the reality is that unemployment continues to rise and with it the government's bill for social welfare. With the tax take back at 2003 levels, extra revenue streams must be devised and savage cuts in public expenditure introduced. Any politician who refuses to accept that this is the key issue facing the country doesn't deserve a vote.

Prominent Fine Gaelers, such as Richard Bruton, its finance spokesman, and the political neophyte George Lee, have fallen into the depressing habit of responding to questions as to what they would do if in power with well-rehearsed, repetitive attacks on the failings of the government. Yes, the people know the government has made a mess of things; that's why they voted against it last weekend. Now they want to hear solutions.

What we have heard so far are false premises and false promises. The opposition parties can pretend that they will "invest" but there's no money to do that. The two main opposition parties are equally mistaken if they believe they can hoodwink the electorate by refusing to talk about specific tax increases and spending cuts.

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Worryingly, Fine Gael and Labour are at complete variance when it comes to their economic plans, raising serious doubts as to their suitability as potential coalition partners. It isn't just that they differ on tax and spending; they have different approaches to sorting out the banking crisis.

The parties won't commit to fighting a general election on an agreed common platform, promising instead to maximise their own votes by pushing their very different agendas. In time-honoured fashion, they will then sit down afterwards and hammer out a programme for government, ditching some of the policies their supporters voted for.

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That's not good enough. When it comes to the general election, people will want to know exactly what is on offer. Fine Gael and Labour cannot seek votes on the basis of their different economic strategies and then compromise just to do a deal with each other.

Kenny and Eamon Gilmore are cock-a-hoop after last weekend, but their prospects of repeating the feat at a general election may not be as clear-cut as they seem to believe.

Fine Gael, with more seats than Fianna Fail at local and European level, is talking about a seismic shift in the political landscape. But while the party has recovered in Dublin, it is still unlikely to gain enough seats to form a coalition without Labour.

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Labour's hope that it would beat Fianna Fail into third place came nowhere near to being realised, despite its European success. If it cannot make a significant breakthrough at a time when Fianna Fail is on its knees, then what chance does it have at a general election? Labour's only chance of being in power is as a junior partner, which is why coalition with Fianna Fail cannot be ruled out.

Fianna Fail's stock is at a historic low but it was still able to gain nearly a quarter of the vote in the local elections. If this is its real core, then it may not fall much further - even if the news gets worse. And it will. Brian Lenihan, the finance minister, insists he has no option but to introduce a tough budget in December and Martin Mansergh told me last week that Fianna Fail "may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb" at this stage.

Even with this tough talk, though, will Fianna Fail go the whole way in terms of maximising the pain? The introduction of a property tax, for example, may be a financial necessity but, politically, it could finish an already badly damaged party in the urban areas while undermining much of its remaining support outside the cities. Fianna Fail's reaction to its local election drubbing in 2004 was to cut taxes and ramp up spending, contributing to our current crisis. That flexibility is no longer there, but the political imperative to minimise damage remains intact.

The government's argument against holding an election now is that this would be too dangerous given the economic situation. I don't buy that. The claim that it would impair the state's ability to raise borrowings on international markets is specious. Despite Brian Cowen's claim that there is international approval for the action his government has taken , the reality is that various rating agencies are downgrading our status on a regular basis. Neither is there a consensus that the creation of the National Asset Management Agency will sort out the problem with the banks. And who can say whether the right balance will be achieved between tax increases and spending cuts in December's budget?

In short, the Cowen administration has credibility problems in dealing with all the key economic issues.

An early election, therefore, would not necessarily make matters worse, but there is no guarantee that a new government would perform any better. The real danger lies in political parties offering us soft options, securing election on that basis and then failing to prescribe the medicine that must be taken. If their current behaviour is anything to go by, then neither Fine Gael nor Labour seem to have the stomach for the real challenge.

matt.cooper@sunday-times.ie