Those of us who doubted Enda Kenny’s ability to lead Fine Gael into power — and that includes the large number of deputies who opposed him in last summer’s leadership challenge — have been proved wrong. The history books will record that Kenny swept into office last Wednesday on the crest of an extraordinary majority and, for the first time ever, Fine Gael is the largest party in the Dail. It is an extraordinary political achievement.
It must be remembered, however, that this outcome has been facilitated by the almost incredible collapse in support for Fianna Fail. And we will never know if Fine Gael’s efforts to achieve single-party government were hampered by Kenny’s performance in the closing weeks of the campaign.
Not that such speculation matters now. All that counts is what Kenny’s party and its coalition colleagues in Labour can achieve with the vast majority they now command in the Dail. I genuinely hope my long-standing concern that Kenny does not have what it takes to be a successful taoiseach is proved wrong. Kenny, of course, can only benefit from the low expectations of his ability. But he will also generate goodwill because of his personality, and of course there is relief that the previous crowd are gone.
Kenny is sincere, honest, likeable, humble and has integrity. But I don’t believe I’m alone in wondering if he is smart enough for the challenges ahead. Again, I hope I’m wrong and I look forward to the day when I can apologise for ever doubting him. But I can’t shake off the feeling that what lies ahead will defeat him, and that’s mainly because it would defeat almost anyone.
That said, last week’s start was promising. Kenny’s measured and understated speeches since winning the election have been far better than his previous attempts at injecting passion into his oratory. It improves public confidence when a political leader speaks with clarity, real emotion and unforced conviction: Brian Cowen either bored his audience to death or shouted his head off in boorish fashion. He didn’t care about criticism because, as he repeatedly pointed out, presentation didn’t matter to him.
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Kenny’s long journey to power has worked in his favour, allowing him to grow in political terms as he overcame numerous disappointments. Indeed, he is proof of the truth of the adage that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. The taoiseach knows he has to act quickly but he is not panicking. In his dealings with Europe it is clear that plenty of behind-the-scenes efforts are under way to persuade his prime ministerial colleagues there must be a change to the ruinous terms imposed on this country by the IMF/EU loan package.
John Bruton, who led the last Fine Gael/Labour coalition, has assumed a new prominence in recent weeks, taking a firmer public line with the EU. Peter Sutherland, a former EU commissioner and a powerful figure at the investment bank Goldman Sachs, has also pitched in. Pat Cox, a former president of the European parliament, is also advising the government. His strong personal friendship with the EU commissioner Olli Rehn may well prove useful when it comes to renegotiating the EU element of last November’s deal.
Nothing will be achieved easily of course. There are still doubts over whether Kenny and his advisers will be brave enough to threaten a default that would throw the euro into turmoil, a tactic that some commentators believe is our best negotiating tool. There are growing signs that an improved deal may be on the table but that Germany will demand we surrender our 12.5% corporation tax rate in return. That cannot be countenanced.
It is understandable that much of the focus last week centred on the new cabinet. Equally important will be the externally-sourced advisers (never mind the expense if they are good enough) and any changes planned among the ranks of senior civil servants. The outgoing government press secretary has been retained for three months to provide continuity, but there is much speculation about how long the government will take before replacing senior officials in some government departments, many of whom share the blame as much as any elected minister for the poor decisions taken over the past decade.
The encouraging sign is that Kenny’s cabinet, with a couple of exceptions, seems to have been selected on the basis of ability rather than political considerations. The surprise decision to put Joan Burton in the social protection department is a public relations problem for Eamon Gilmore, her Labour party leader, and not for Kenny.
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Even if there are legitimate concerns about the advanced age of the male-dominated cabinet, there is no doubt about its capacity for hard work. These are mainly hardened, experienced and, in some cases, intellectually impressive operators. But the cabinet will be conscious of how the drip-feed of bad news wore down their predecessors. The inability to carry out plans because of financial constraints, and the need to inflict unpopular measures on a regular basis, could mean the sense of optimism evaporates quickly.
The new ministers must remember they have not been appointed as managers. In addition to bringing their political experience to bear they need to remember this may be their only chance to be radical and imaginative.
If the current line-up lasts more than two years without requiring a massive transfusion of new blood it will be doing well, but at least Kenny seems to have anticipated the likely need for change. At first glance, the line-up of junior ministers is not that encouraging. Several appointees have been chosen for geographical reasons, making up for the lack of balance in the cabinet. But within the junior ranks there are talented and diligent politicians with real prospects. Hopefully some of them — Brian Hayes and Roisín Shortall come particularly to mind — will impress so much that their promotion in 2013 becomes imperative.
The opposition benches are a much safer place to be over the next few years. Freed of the responsibility of government, opposition politicians will be queuing up to score points designed to appeal to the dissatisfied public mood. It is amusing to note that last week Sinn Fein supported the DUP in the Stormont assembly in introducing savage budget cuts. It was the SDLP and the Ulster Unionist party that provided the opposition. It is a clear illustration of the realities of power versus the luxury of opposition.
That’s not to write off the opposition entirely. Some of them made intelligent contributions when they spoke in the Dail last week, although others missed the mark. Some of the new faces, particularly in the independent ranks, need to be careful that they do not become tiresome.
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We all know that what happened to the country was a scandal and that the solutions being imposed on citizens are deeply unfair, as they are now expected to pick up the tab for a party most of them never attended.
But we’ve known all that for quite some time. The political paradigm has now shifted, and what we require is a solution. We need a plan that is workable and pragmatic, not ones that are based on populist ideology.
This is where Kenny may score. His rise to power has been based on pragmatism and his exercise of power may now be founded on the same principle.