We're not even three weeks into the new year but Fine Gael and Labour seem to have already given up hope that there will be an election in 2010. Maybe appearances are deceptive and the main opposition parties are doing no more than attempting to lull the government into a false sense of security that it can survive until the next scheduled election in 2012.
Regardless, Enda Kenny's concession last weekend that he did not expect the government to fall this year, thus precipitating a general election, was a surprising public admission to make. Shouldn't he be giving the impression that his party, the largest in the country following the local elections, is in a perpetual state of readiness to seize whatever opportunities may arise?
Privately, senior Labour people to whom I've spoken have been saying much the same: they think TDs on the government benches are so terrified of the consequences of an election that they will do nothing to cause one. That seems to be the basis on which the opposition has decided there is no point in getting too excited about sweeping into power this year.
There is a logic to this consensus. Opinion poll findings that suggest Fine Gael and Labour should be getting ready for office also predict electoral doom for Fianna Fail. So the traditionally dominant party has good grounds to hang tough.
Even if a few more TDs abandon Fianna Fail with an eye to fighting the next election as independents they may continue to vote with the government when required or be found missing when contentious votes are called. While the government could conceivably lose some votes in the Dail any motion of no confidence tabled by the opposition would not necessarily be carried.
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All of which means 2010 threatens to be very frustrating for the opposition who, after the events of 2009, may have expected to be in power by now. They can only look on as the authors of our misfortune continue to hold the reins of power, watching from the sidelines as poor decision-making and indecision continue. Anything the opposition says is dismissed as whinging while the best initiatives must remain a secret for fear the government parties will swipe them.
It is something of a mystery to the opposition how the government managed to clear the various hurdles it set for itself last year, any one of which could have caused its collapse. It managed to introduce two budgets (in April and December) that between them cut public service pay and greatly increased the income tax burden. The National Asset Managment Agency (Nama), the creative but extremely risky plan for dealing with the toxic property loans that are crippling the banks, is almost open for business. The second referendum on the Lisbon treaty was passed comfortably. A revised programme for government was agreed with the Green party.
Whatever the rights and wrongs of all these "achievements" the bottom line is that the government did all this and still held on to power. Fine Gael and Labour may regard it as fortunate that they did not find themselves in office in 2009 given that all those tough decisions had to be taken.
And with the benefit of hindsight they can also consider themselves fortunate to have missed the boat in 2007, just as the economy fell off a cliff. But while patience has many virtues the delay in Enda Kenny's elevation to the highest political office has created the impression that the Fine Gael leader is something of a political wallflower, the eternal bridesmaid. Kenny knows that the longer this government runs its course the greater its chances of mitigating a rout in 2012. Things have gotten so bad that it's hard to believe they can get much worse. On that basis Fianna Fail will assume, with some justification, that it reached its poll nadir last year. All those who intend abandoning the party have probably done so by now and following the positive response in some quarters to December's budget, a few voters might even have returned to the fold. Any indication that the economy is turning for the better can only be good news for the government.
Fianna Fail also wants to hang on because it believes that whatever its own failings the electorate remains unconvinced by the alternative. Kenny's personal position as leader of Fine Gael, and the only realistic alternative taoiseach, remains fascinating to witness.
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He is entitled to be regarded as a success but in important respects has not been successful enough. His energy has helped to rebuild the party following the wholesale loss of seats in 2002, culminating in the major breakthrough in last year's local and European elections, but with a more convincing and charismatic leader Fine Gael, arguably, would have a more commanding opinion poll rating and Fianna Fail a correspondingly lower one. Fine Gael is set to win plenty more seats at the next election but that is a certainty for a centrist party given Fianna Fail's economic mismanagement. Members might wonder would they do even better if somebody else, other than Kenny, was on the party's posters.
Since Kenny has declared his belief that the government will remain in office this year, how does he play it from here? His strategy of pursuing a bank inquiry is a good one, even if the manner in which he suggests an investigation should be carried out might not be sufficient to get the right answers or to hold guilty parties to account. A banking inquiry would certainly be in the public interest if, in addition to examining the cause of the crash, it identified those who should not be left in charge of the clean-up.
Kenny is also right to insist that Brian Cowen could not be exempted from giving evidence. His stewardship of the Department of Finance during the Ahern era was central to the mess. It seems now that the government is being press-ganged into holding the hearings against its wishes, but the terms of reference, the powers given to the investigators and the identity of those conducting the quasi-trial are essential but unknown.
A banking inquiry, of course, is just one of the issues that could stop a government comeback dead in its tracks and present the opposition with its opportunity. Another is the disruption to public services that could be caused by work-to-rule action (although, paradoxically, holding a hard line could actually benefit the government).
The banking crisis, too, will take many further twists this year, especially as personal guarantees are called in. Further rising unemployment will increase public disenchantment. The next budget may involve many unpopular tax increases just as even further cuts in public spending are required. Cowen plans a cabinet reshuffle - which would give him the chance to axe underperformers - but may have to wait until he sees how Brian Lenihan's treatment for illness progresses.
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Cowen more than anyone else will remember the rueful words of Albert Reynolds on his departure as taoiseach that it is "the little things that trip you up". This government has tried hard to come to terms with economic issues but the belated and unconvincing reaction to various weather crises in recent months has undermined public confidence in it so much that it continues to hover on the verge of collapse. Despite what they say in public I expect that both Fine Gael and Labour will continue to remain on election stand-by.