Martin Johnson is a keen student of military history, with the English Civil War a particular speciality. Rugby and war are often mentioned in the same context and Johnson was not shy yesterday in drawing further parallels between the two.
Before England’s fourth match of the RBS Six Nations Championship, against Scotland at Twickenham tomorrow, the team manager referred to the thesis of one of the leading minds of the 19th century, Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, the German field marshal.
It was brought to Johnson’s attention by Captain Harry Parker, who lost both legs in Afghanistan and who addressed England before the record win over Australia in November. Von Moltke redefined army strategy in the field and Johnson paraphrased his assertion that “no plan survives first contact with the enemy”. In effect, expect the unexpected.
“We have to be smart [against Scotland],” Johnson said. “They will have things ready for this game that we haven’t seen all tournament.”
At stake is a potential grand slam for England and the avoidance of a wooden spoon for Andy Robinson’s dispirited Scots. But it was a measured statement rather than rabble-rousing rhetoric on the part of Johnson, who has made only one enforced change to the starting XV, with Alex Corbisiero replacing the injured Andrew Sheridan at prop. Tom Croft and Paul Doran-Jones come on to the bench.
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The closer his side get to a possible first clean sweep since 2003, the more one might expect England to contract, become narrow and nervous. Yet those are not traits England have displayed to date. In fact, they have done the exact opposite. There has been the odd scary moment, the odd overenthusiastic passage of play, but overall their approach has been calm, measured and authoritative.
From the make-up of his team it would appear that Robinson, the Scotland head coach, has decided to attack England’s great strengths — the setpieces — while playing a more deliberate, structured game.
That may prove foolhardy given that Scotland are traditionally far better equipped and more adept at hit-and-run guerrilla tactics. Scotland might also look to target the breakdown, the real battleground of the modern game. Pace to the tackle area and the ruck dictates matches now, as does the speed at which the ball is recycled.
England have not always been that fluid in this department and without an out-and-out, over-the-ball foraging No 7 they may find they do not have everything their own way. But they are getting better and have proved skilful at forcing turnovers, 11 to date in the wins over Wales, Italy and France.
The stark contrast between the sides is in the quality of the respective defences and attacks. England’s defence is well-nigh watertight while Scotland’s has leaked like a sieve. In these areas there is but one winner. England have scored 11 tries, conceded only two and manufactured 20 line breaks. Scotland have crossed the line three times, all in Paris, and shipped nine tries, a statistic that surprised Johnson.
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It would be a surprise if England did not look to attack with width and pace. Scotland have shown themselves to be remarkably vulnerable early in a game. In seven of their past nine internationals they have conceded tries inside the first ten minutes. That saps confidence and if it happens again tomorrow, they could be chasing the game and may leave themselves wide open.
The formline suggests that England are likely to justify their favourites’ tag and, however passionate and desperate Scotland are to put behind them their dreadful record in the tournament to date, the visiting team face a long, unproductive afternoon.
The alternative is unthinkable. “If we play to our potential there is no reason we can’t win the grand slam,” Ben Youngs, the England scrum half, said. “It is a phrase we are not allowed to say. It is the target but if you know what obstacles are in your way you should be all right. If we lose this weekend it will be a disaster. It would end up being a shambles of a Six Nations because we have come so far.”
• England’s women have opted for experience as they continue their grand-slam quest against Scotland at Twickenham after the men’s Calcutta Cup match tomorrow. Amy Garnett and Catherine Spencer, who have 155 caps between them, have been recalled at hooker and No 8 and Rachael Burford makes her first start of the season at centre. There will be free entry for anyone wanting to watch the game, which starts at 5.15pm, and the organisers are hoping to attract more than the 12,000 who watched England’s previous game at Twickenham, a win over New Zealand in 2009.