Danny Welbeck scoring the winning goal for Arsenal against his former club at Old Trafford, Radamel Falcao being an unused substitute in the game, having struggled to make an impact at Manchester United, Robin van Persie being out injured and James Wilson not included in the 18-man squad.
Events on Monday evening may have brought the situation into sharper focus but no one should be too surprised that the huge gamble Louis van Gaal took on his strike-force last summer has backfired or is, at least, in grave danger of doing so.
Welbeck’s sale to Arsenal for £16 million on transfer deadline day was trumpeted as evidence of United losing their soul but it was less a dereliction of their roots, especially when taken in the context of Wilson’s subsequent promotion from the academy, and more an example of an alarming lack of foresight.
It was a decision that smacked of short-term thinking, and even then it was easy to pick holes in the rationale behind selling an established England striker to a direct rival for a top four place.
Consider this. Falcao joined United only a month or so after returning from an anterior cruciate knee ligament injury that had kept him out for most of the year and forced him to miss the World Cup finals in Brazil. The Colombia striker had never played in English football before and bore many similarities to Van Persie. Like Van Persie, he lacks pace – something United had been hoping to inject much more of into the team – and, like Van Persie, age was not on his side. Last month, Falcao turned 29. Even if he had blazed a trail in the Barclays Premier League this term, paying £43.5 million at the end of the season to turn the Colombian’s loan move from Monaco into a permanent deal would take some stomaching.
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As for Van Persie, 31, injury prone and with his best days behind him, United were well aware he would enter the final 12 months of his contract at the end of the campaign. Wayne Rooney may be going nowhere but he celebrated his 29th birthday the month after Welbeck left and Falcao arrived. That, too, was before anyone could anticipate the extent to which Van Gaal would use him as a midfielder. Wilson, while talented, is a teenager whose opportunities were always going to be relatively limited with so many established names ahead of him.
Van Gaal may have entrusted Falcao, Van Persie and Rooney to fire United back into the Champions League but what was the thought-process beyond this season? It was a decision that would not have added up even if United were to finish in the top four, let alone fail to and see that triumvirate struggle.
Offloading Welbeck, 24, left United with a giant vacuum between a trio of ageing strikers, the fitness records of two of whom should have set alarm bells ringing, and Wilson, who has made just two Barclays Premier League starts for the club this season. With the concerns over Falcao now being realised and a combination of Van Persie’s injury troubles and deteriorating form making it harder to rely upon the Dutchman, United have left themselves in a situation where they may need to go out and sign not one but two pedigree strikers of the right age profile over the next couple of summers. And this is where the difficulties start.
Even before the cost of signing a top class striker in his mid-20s is factored in, Van Gaal’s £150 million splurge on new players last summer failed to address several key positions in the team. United could comfortably spend in excess of £100 million trying to bring in a right back, a centre half or two and the central midfielder Van Gaal craves in the summer. A striker on top of that outlay? An Edinson Cavani, for example? That’ll be good for another £50 or £60 million, and that’s assuming the club can first attract one, and before the cost of replacing Van Persie a little further down the line comes into the equation.
What if United do not qualify for the Champions League this season? How easy will it be to lure the best players if they are facing a second season out of Europe’s premier club competition? How much more over the odds will they have to pay in transfer fees and wages to compensate for that? And what if they are also left searching for a new goalkeeper because David De Gea, who enters the final year of his contract at Old Trafford at the end of the season, refuses to sign a new deal and the club opt to sell him to Real Madrid rather than lose the Spaniard for nothing the next summer?
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A doomsday scenario? Perhaps, but as United prepare to face Tottenham Hotspur at Old Trafford on Sunday in the first of a forbidding run of fixtures comprising Liverpool at Anfield, a resurgent Aston Villa, Manchester City, the champions, and Chelsea, the league leaders, at Stamford Bridge, it is not unfeasible that Van Gaal’s team will finish outside the top four.
Van Gaal had misgivings about Welbeck, and felt that he did not score enough goals. Those reservations may be well founded, albeit undermined somewhat by the fact that Welbeck has scored twice as many goals (eight) as Falcao this season, but the England forward would have given the manager several things.
He would have given him versatility and an alternative option to Van Persie that Falcao – who suffered the ignominy of being dumped in the under-21 side only 24 hours after failing to get off the bench in that 2-1 FA Cup quarter-final defeat by Arsenal - does not. He would have provided the pace and running power United lack up front and, crucially, he would have saved the manager a large pot of cash in the transfer market at a time when United have already earmarked significant sums for other positions. Would Welbeck have been a long-term answer? Maybe, maybe not, but keeping him would have been eminently preferable to the hole Van Gaal and United have now dug for themselves.