This is one of the classic match-ups in the men’s game today and a significant reason why is that Andy, despite an 11-4 deficit against Nadal, always believes that he is going to test the world No 1 to the full. And, in general, that is what he does.
There are several definitive signs to look out for which can point to the match being won or lost. The first that comes to mind, and will be a clear signal that Murray is in good nick, is if the backhand up the line is functioning. He needs to take time away from Nadal and that means stepping inside the court and taking that shot on.
When they played in the Australian Open quarter-finals last year (Murray won 6-3, 7-6, 3-0 ret), that was his hottest shot. It is the best of its kind in the men’s game.
I’d like to see Andy’s first serve up around the 65 per cent mark. If he can do that, he surely will have the platform on which to build a victory. And, also, a definite sign that he is feeling good about his game is seeing him pull out his favourite drop shot — always much to the chagrin of The Times tennis correspondent.
Andy will play as much as he possibly can to the Nadal backhand, but he will have to flirt with the forehand as well because it is often by playing to the strength that you get to the weakness.
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From Rafa’s standpoint, I thought his forehand really began to have an effect in the final couple of sets against Juan Martín del Potro in the fourth round. He can hit clean winners off that side from anywhere on the court and it is so destructive. He also has a remarkable ability to engage and win a point when you think he is on the ropes.
What he did several times against Mardy Fish in the quarter-finals was to play a sneak serve-and-volley on a critical moment. He is a stunning volleyer.
So much will depend on how both players feel physically. Nadal has been suffering with his foot and there is always something going on with Andy, which makes him so watchable.
Fitness will be absolutely huge and Andy has improved in that area significantly in the last couple of years, which is a testament to his team.
The attitudes of both players will also be critical. We know we will get positive body language from Nadal and if Andy can bring a similar sense of belief and positive intent from the first point he can certainly win.